Holyrood election: John Curtice gives his verdict with a week to go
From independence to tactical voting and a low turnout, there is a lot to keep an eye on ahead of next Thursday’s election.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice says the SNP may do better than the polls suggest because of the Scottish Greens, and also warns there could be a very low turnout on the day.
He also says while independence is no longer a voter priority, it could still play a big role on May 7 because of tactical voting.
Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland Breakfast, Sir John said: “If you ask me ‘has the heather been caught fire by this election?’ then the answer is no.
“The two things people are remembering are about Malcolm Offord [Reform UK’s Scottish leader]. The first is when Mr Offord said [Scottish Labour leader] Anas Sarwar had said to help they would come to some understanding afterwards, and then the argument between [Scottish Green co-leader] Ross Greer and Mr Offord over Mr Offord’s wealth.
“Talk about broader synoptic policy like how do we cope with the substantial fiscal challenges the next Scottish Government will face, there’s been rather less.
“If I could characterise the campaign by one broad dividing line it would be that Reform and the Conservative are looking to reduce expenditure with eyes on the welfare bill, and Scotland does spend more on welfare.
“On the other end of the spectrum, the Greens are saying ‘free childcare, free buses’. The SNP are not quite so audacious, but they are not suggesting they will change the direction of more welfare and taxes for the better off.
“Labour is trying to make a stance between the two and would like to reduce taxes, but are not saying much.”
However, the fact the Scottish Greens are not standing in the majority of the constituencies could benefit the SNP at next week’s election.
Independence is still an influential talking point here, as voters are still likely to vote along constitutional lines, including when it comes to tactical voting.
Sir John said: "One thing we need to be aware of is many polls have not taken due account of the fact the Greens are only fighting six of the 73 constituencies.
“In theory Scotland has a two-part electoral system so we should end up with a result roughly proportional to the list vote.
“But the fact the Greens are not fighting most constituencies, the polls have not taken that into account. Given most Green supporters are in favour of independence and want to vote for a nationalist party, don’t be surprised if the polls show something of an uptake in respect of the SNP.”
He added: “Tactical voting is nothing new - those of a more pro-union disposition are more inclined to vote for whichever unionist party is better able to defeat the SNP. That happened a lot in 2021 and 2024.”
The other two big things Sir John thinks voters should keep an eye on is turnout and those who are still undecided. Around two in five voters in Scotland have still not made up their mind on who they will vote for in next week’s election.
He added: “Holyrood has struggled to get much more than a 50 per cent turnout.
“It was higher in 2021, but that election occurred in the midst of a pandemic where devolved institutions had a high level of visibility for people in Scotland because they were responsible for the day-to-day measures to deal with the pandemic.
“We shouldn't be surprised if turnout goes down.”
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