Why turnout could be such a decisive factor in this Scottish election
With the public ‘scunnered’ by the state of politics, the ability of parties to get their supporters out to vote may play a significant role in the Holyrood election result
What might have been an election celebrating more than a quarter-century of a successful parliament – with the passing of ground-breaking legislation and looking ahead to the challenges and opportunities awaiting Scotland over the next 25 years – has instead become a cauldron of anger, mistrust and volatility.
It has been largely created outside Scotland but is likely to have dramatic consequences in what will be the first serious six-party election since the Holyrood parliament was established in 1999.
Amidst this toxic and visionless politics, how voters respond will be critical. “Scunnered”, to quote Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, now describes the mood of the electorate. Voter rage, the prospect of a low turnout affecting the distribution of votes and seats, and the arrival of the Reform party are reshaping our future.
Wasted efforts, wishful thinking
Economic stagnation, the cost-of-living crisis, institutional failure, and an anti-politics feeling are weighing heavily on the minds of voters and could lead to shifting loyalties.
Much of this opprobrium and anger is aimed at Westminster. But there is no doubt that Scotland is stalled, drifting and requires a boost, a fresh vision, a reaffirmation of its radicalism and relevance. A greater effort to realise the parliament’s potential is long overdue. We can’t wait for a future cloaked in so much political theatre, constitutional uncertainty, wasteful effort and wishful thinking.
Rarely has the future of Scotland been so wrapped up in global affairs and fears for our economic future. Donald Trump’s behaviour is unsettling and damaging to the economic well-being of Scots. Keir Starmer dominates the headlines, for all the wrong reasons.
Then there’s the damaging, despairing and never-ending nightmare of Jeffrey Epstein, Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, and the fallout from the ludicrous appointment of Peter Mandelson to the top diplomatic job in Washington. This is the remarkable and frenzied backdrop to next week’s elections.
The SNP is tired and devoid of new answers to enduring questions. After 20 years in office they are running on empty. Many areas of policy are in need of urgent attention. Their ‘identity’ politics, however, provide an electoral safety net despite their obvious weaknesses.
Despite failures and declining popularity, the SNP is likely to win and could secure all but a handful of the 73 constituency seats out of the total of 129. In the 2021 election, the SNP won 86.5 per cent of the constituency seats despite receiving only 46.5 per cent of the vote. This outdated ‘first-past-the-post’ system makes no sense. Every seat in the Scottish Parliament must be elected by a form of proportional representation, where every vote counts – the Welsh are doing it, so why not us?
READ MORE: Scottish election 2026: Why over-obsessing about polls and tactical voting is bad for democracy
Division and resentment
The Conservatives face a difficult election, haemorrhaging support to Reform and struggling to recover from their 2024 general election drubbing. Reform is the joker in the pack, based on one person, one policy and lots of protest. Nevertheless, they are still potentially dangerous, given their eager embrace of populism and the racist overtones of their anti-immigration rhetoric. Division and resentment will be exploited by Reform – essentially an English nationalist party – who look set to take votes from all parties.
For Labour, the election is challenging. The early momentum after the 2024 general election has eased. The Labour government at Westminster has created headaches for the Scottish party, affecting the progress and goodwill that Sarwar has achieved.
On election day, it would be a mistake to ignore the quality of Labour’s ‘ground game’ and its ability to get their voters out, especially when turnout matters so much and Reform’s rise seems to have stalled. Sarwar’s steady leadership provides a positive reminder of the hopes and aspirations of devolution.
An alternative to independence
Writing Labour off makes no sense, especially when six-party politics makes the outcome uncertain. But one lesson is clear. Scottish Labour must quickly and decisively escape the gravitational pull of UK Labour and Westminster, build a new political identity and create a new vision and direction for Scotland. Labour’s creed remains relevant and powerful.
The Liberal Democrats, who are likely to win a few constituency seats, have a valuable role in Scottish politics. Firm believers in constitutional change, they are set to play an increasingly important role, with a form of federalism, backed by a progressive alliance, becoming the only serious alternative to independence.
The Greens will be hoping to recover from their bruising experiences with the SNP and learn lessons from Zack Polanski in England. They remain the only likely partner for the SNP to secure a majority government.
Importance of turnout
Turnout, however, will be crucial. The UK and Scotland are fast becoming low-turnout electorates. There has been a similar pattern in other European countries, but the UK loss of interest in voting is much worse than elsewhere.
The facts are depressing. In the 2024 general election, turnout in Scotland was 59.2 per cent, the second lowest figure since 1918. The six elections held for the Scottish Parliament since 1999 have averaged around 54 per cent.
Turnout reflects the health of a democracy, the level of voter interest, trust and positive engagement and the worth of a vote fiercely campaigned for. Elections provide a platform for people to express hopes and aspirations for their future but, sadly, Scotland is not in a good place.
However, on a brighter note, Scots do have voter potential. In the 2014 independence referendum, the turnout was nearly 85 per cent, the highest in any nationwide referendum or parliamentary election in the UK since women won the vote in the 1918! Maybe the challenge is to make politics more relevant, interesting and worthwhile.
Elections remain the bedrock of our democracy. That’s why, whatever we do next week, we must all vote.
Henry McLeish is a former First Minister of Scotland
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