Reform storms ahead of Labour in by-election - what it means for Holyrood

Zoe Hisbent won the Glenrothes West and Kinglassie seat overnight, marking the SNP’s third win in Fife Council in less than a year.

But perhaps what is more interesting here is how the other parties finished on the night.

As Ballot Box Scotland notes, “this ward has never elected anything bar SNP and Labour councillors”. It is within the Mid Fife and Glenrothes Holyrood constituency, currently held by the SNP’s Jenny Gilruth. Back in the day, part of this ward voted for Labour former first minister Henry McLeish.

So you would expect Scottish Labour’s Jacob Winton to come second in this by-election, and give the SNP a run for their money.

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That is not what played out. Reform UK’s Romano Valente won the second most first-preference votes with 725, storming ahead of Labour on 413. The SNP won 1,167.

The Conservatives’ Andrew Butchart came fourth with 182 first-preference votes and the Lib Dems’ Edward Scotcher came fifth with 125.

This almost exactly mirrors what the Holyrood-wide polls are suggesting will happen at the Holyrood election on May 7, which is now only 104 days away.

With such a pivotal election looming, what happens at council by-elections in the lead-up does matter.

Polling for Holyrood has been quite steady now for a couple of months, so we the results do hold some weight now for political watchers and campaigners.

These polls suggest the SNP will remain the largest party in Scotland after the election, but will fall short of the 65-seat majority that First Minister John Swinney has his heart set on.

But Reform UK is expected to become the official opposition in Holyrood. Several polls have now predicted they will come second, storming ahead of Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives.

Nigel Farage’s party appeals to disillusioned voters who are scunnered with the status quo, and these voters may be the ones who cannot be bothered to go out to polling stations on the day.

Yet the Fife by-election had a low turnout of just 22.1 per cent, and Reform UK was still able to cut through.

In an area where Scottish Labour should have done better, this will certainly be a wake-up call ahead of the May election.