Holyrood Election Poll: SNP on track to win, with Reform UK and Scottish Labour neck-and-neck

The SNP is on course to remain the largest party in Scotland on 61 seats, but will ultimately fall short of a majority, according to the new Survation poll.

However, it suggests Reform UK and Scottish Labour will both finish on 18 seats.

A total of 34 per cent of voters said they would back John Swinney and the SNP on May 7 on the constituency vote, along with 28 per cent on the regional vote.

The poll, conducted for True North, also found 19 per cent of voters would back Reform UK on the constituency vote, compared to just 16 per cent for Scottish Labour. On the regional list vote, both parties are tied at 18 per cent.

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This is the lowest Scottish Labour has polled by Survation since 2021.

The results come as Sir Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch all visit Scotland today, four months ahead of the Holyrood election.

Nigel Farage is at a hotel in Kirkcaldy, where he has just announced Lord Malcolm Offord as leader of the party in Scotland. Security is reportedly tight at the event.

Sir Keir Starmer is expected this afternoon, when he is due to make an announcement on clean energy.

Meanwhile, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch will visit Edinburgh, where she will attack the Scottish Government for raising taxes and benefits in this week’s Budget.

The Truth North poll also shows th Scottish Lib Dems have pulled ahead of the Scottish Greens on the regional list on 11 per cent compared to 9 per cent. A further 13 per cent of voters intend to vote for the Scottish Conservatives on both the constituency and regional ballots.

This would see the Conservatives return 12 seats, the Lib Dems 11and the Greens nine.

Fergus Mutch, managing partner at True North Advisors, said: “With four months to go until the Holyrood election, the first Scotland-wide political poll of 2026 shows that Reform UK is continuing to disrupt Scottish politics.

“Scottish Labour faces a major challenge from this continued surge in support for Nigel Farage’s party, with Anas Sarwar now facing a battle to be the main opposition, and with his fortunes intrinsically tied to how the public rate the performance of his party at Westminster.

“While the SNP will be pleased with its continued poll lead, there is no sign that it is building much in the way of momentum heading into the crucial campaigning period ahead.”

The poll also found that amongst the devolved leaders, First Minister John Swinney is the most popular with an approval rating of -5 per cent.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has an approval rating of -18 per cent.

The Survation polling also suggests that if a general election was held tomorrow, the SNP would receive 31 per cent of the votes in Scotland, followed by Reform UK on 21 per cent and Scottish Labour on 17 per cent.

At a UK level, Sir Keir Starmer received an approval rating of -46 per cent in the Scotland-wide poll, followed by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on -43 percent.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage received -25 per cent and UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch received -23 per cent.

Almost half of voters said the performance of the UK Labour government in Westminster would make it less likely for them to vote Scottish Labour in May. This is compared to just 17 per cent who said the performance of Sir Keir Starmer’s administration would make them more likely to back Mr Sarwar.

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, said: “Labour at 16 per cent (-2) would be the lowest level we have recorded in Survation’s Holyrood constituency polling this parliament - down around six points on a year ago and roughly half the 33-34 per cent we were measuring in mid to late 2023.

“Meanwhile, the SNP are steady on 34 per cent (no change on our last poll at the end of 2025).

“Beyond Labour, opposition to the SNP remains fragmented.

“Reform’s momentum may be stalling at 19 per cent (-3), while the Conservatives show a modest pick-up to 13 per cent (+3).

“The Liberal Democrats are on 9 per cent (+1) and the Greens 8 per cent (+1), with Alba on 1 per cent (no change).

“The net effect is the SNP maintaining a clear lead, now 15 points (+3) on the constituency vote.

“Can the SNP win an outright majority on these numbers? Perhaps not.

“Two factors will moderate how these constituency figures translate into SNP seats.

“Obviously, regional list votes are allocated proportionally and act as a corrective to first-past-the-post constituency outcomes - in our list-vote measure the SNP are on 28 per cent, with Reform 18 per cent, Labour 18 per cent, Conservatives 13 per cent, Lib Dems 11 per cent, Greens 9 per cent and Alba 3 per cent.”

He added: “Separately, we would also expect tactical voting in constituencies in seats where voters prioritise stopping the SNP or stopping a particular challenger which can further weaken the link between headline vote share and eventual seats.

“A projection using these polling figures, based on a version of Ballot Box Scotland's nominal 2021 figures and proportional swing, would yield an SNP seat count of 61 seats with Labour and Reform on 18 seats each, the Conservatives on 12, Lib Dems on 11, Greens on 9 and no seats for other parties, including Alba.”

This comes as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, Reform UK leader Kemi Badenoch, Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander, UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Shadow Scottish Secretary Andrew Bowie and UK Defence Secretary John Healey are all due to make visits to Scotland today.

A spokesman for Scottish Labour said: “It is clear that Reform cannot remove the SNP from office and are only campaigning to be in opposition.

“Scottish Labour is the only party that is standing to boot the SNP out of office after 19 years of failure.

“This election is not about Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage - it is about Anas Sarwar and John Swinney.

“It is about who should be the next First Minister of Scotland. Everything else is just noise.

“Scottish Labour will offer people the opportunity to take a new direction and turn the page on almost two decades of SNP failure.”