Why Scottish Conservatives like me still have hope

The most recent analysis of polling in Scotland, by the Diffley Partnership, shows Reform sitting at around 16 per cent on both the constituency and regional votes for the Scottish Parliament, only a point or two behind the flailing Scottish Labour, leaving the SNP way out ahead on 34 per cent on the constituency vote and 28 per cent on the regional list.

And as Scottish Conservative loyalists head to Manchester on Sunday morning, it is with the knowledge that a literal decimation of their MSPs, losing just one in ten, would be a result, not the halving the polls are consistently predicting.

As it stands, Russell Findlay’s party could hold onto some constituencies in the Borders and the North East, but on the regional vote candidates will need to be at number one on the list to have any kind of certainty they will be elected. The very small comfort is that in Wales, the impact of Nigel Farage’s party and a new, entirely proportional, multi-member constituency system could leave the Welsh Conservatives without any members of the Senedd.

READ MORE: Kemi Badenoch issues blunt message to Scottish Tory defectors, as Nigel Farage Reform threat looms

An existential threat

It is therefore no exaggeration to describe Reform’s threat to the Tories as existential, in Wales certainly, and here. No matter how many well-considered policy papers the party produces, like last month’s “Back on Track” proposals for boosting business and the economy, it’s unlikely to make much difference, and the very hard yards of local personal profile and approval looks like the only way forward.

Despite no leader or significant presence in Scotland, support for Reform’s angry, anti-politics shows no sign of weakening but has exposed some home truths about Scottish people that the SNP and Labour have spent years denying. It's hard to work out whether the rise of Reform has given cover for the spread of protests outside hotels holding asylum seekers, or if concerns about the housing and NHS crises at a time when illegal immigration continues to grab headlines have fuelled its rise, but the myth of the genetically and uniformly socialist-minded Scot has been exposed as the sham it always was.

READ MORE: SNP branded 'snooty and elitist' over 20% colleges funding cut as John Swinney makes private school remark

For years it was a tool to “other” the Scottish Conservatives, who smarted at the suggestion and the party did all it could to dispel the notion – such as the party’s support for gender recognition reform under Ruth Davidson – but now Reform is out, loud and proud and does not give a stuff.

As many have noted this week, it’s truly remarkable that a Labour leader’s conference speech should contain virtually no reference to the Conservative opposition, a mark of the panic now gripping the government, like Romans as the Vandals approached the gates of Rome, or the 1745 Jacobite army arriving in Derby.

But it’s hard to see Labour’s conference attacks persuading Reform supporters to retreat, if anything the opposite. Did Sir Keir’s speech writers really think saying Reform’s immigration policy was racist, but not so Nigel Farage or his supporters was credible? And with Labour’s new approach to immigration which, not so long ago, he would have called out as racist?

Starmer’s ‘nasty party’ moment

It all sounded rather patronising, deeply ironic for a speech in which he admitted Labour had patronised working people for too long. That bit was certainly true, but in what may yet become Sir Keir’s version of ex-Conservative leader Theresa May’s “nasty party” moment, it’s an admission which Reform strategists can easily turn back on him.

I can see the leaflets and social media posts now – Labour patronises working people, says Keir Starmer, so vote Reform – but it clearly didn’t occur to his advisers that it was more likely to harden resolve. As for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s torrent of insults, it just betrayed desperation and a lack of sophistication, and it all gives fresh momentum to a movement which could yet see Nigel Farage moving into Number 10, while Mr Sarwar forgets about the flit into Bute House.

The fracturing of UK politics puts both Labour and Conservatives in the same dilemma, with different enemies but the same outcome. Palestinian recognition or not, if Labour tacks to the right on immigration, it risks leaching support to the Greens and, if it ever gets its act together, Jeremy Corbyn’s Your (or whatever name they come up with, Lefty McLeftface?) Party.

Swinney’s best friend

And if, as is now a racing certainty, Rachel Reeves bangs up taxation in next month’s Budget, it’s an opportunity for Reform and even (how strange just to write ‘even’) the Conservatives. For the Tories, they can never go further right on migration than Reform without opening the door even wider to the Lib Dems, but a tough position on immigration while hammering away at Reform's unaffordably high welfare spending plans is Kemi Badenoch's only option.

The Scottish polls show that despite a few SNP supporters moving across to the Faragists, for those voters losing faith with the Conservatives or Labour, “Vote Reform, get SNP” has never been more true. Although at next week’s SNP gathering in Aberdeen there will be the usual crowing about what little it has managed to achieve in the last five years – apart from ramping up welfare – the data shows that John Swinney’s best friend going into next May’s election is Nigel Farage.

And with independence still at the top of the Swinney agenda because of his own internal difficulties, maybe “Say No to Indyref2” has still got life in it yet.