How Keir Starmer is repeating Tories' big mistake on immigration that turned Reform UK into political force

Here’s a taste of what he’s expected to say: “We can all see our country faces a choice, a defining choice. Britain stands at a fork in the road. We can choose decency. Or we can choose division. Renewal or decline. A country, proud of its values, in control of its future, or one that succumbs, against the grain of our history, to the politics of grievance.”

Perhaps his best chance of recovering the image that enabled him to lead Labour to a remarkable, landslide election victory just last year – in terms of seats, at least – lies not in words, but deeds.

READ MORE: Poll: Reform ahead of Labour in Holyrood as Scots back deportations

Labour’s lost votes

The problem, however, is that Starmer’s deeds on the divisive issue of immigration have been remarkably similar to the Conservatives’ during their latter period in government. The Tories’ tough-talking, in contrast to their more pragmatic policies, did little for their fortunes, but it did help Reform UK come from nowhere to win more than four million votes at last year’s election.

Now election guru Professor John Curtice has wisely warned Labour not to “repeat the Tories' mistake” of focusing on immigration. “It is a mistake to believe that this party's [Labour’s] only problem is Reform. It isn't. Actually, you are losing more support to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens collectively, much more support, than you are to Reform,” Curtice said.

As Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said, the party is “allowing our opponents to set the political weather too often”. Starmer needs to create a storm of his own that highlights Reform’s glaring lack of substance on important issues like the economy, health and education. But in order to do so, he will need to show that Labour is making real progress on all three.