Who makes Scotland's autumn Test squad: Injuries cast a shadow, position surfeit, prop problems

It will be a different story on Wednesday when the national coach reveals the 35-40 names for the Autumn Nations Series which will see Fiji, South Africa, Portugal and Australia visit Edinburgh across four consecutive weekends next month.

Expect the return of a clutch of household names who were rested for the summer tour of the Americas. Blair Kinghorn, Finn Russell, Darcy Graham, Jack Dempsey and Johnny Matthews should all be in the mix for an attractive Test programme, of which the game against the world champion Springboks is the jewel in the crown.

Rassie Erasmus brings his team to Murrayfield on November 10 and it goes without saying that Townsend will want his strongest side available but that’s not to say there won’t be scope for some experimentation in the other games. Dan Lancaster, son of former England coach Stuart, has been touted for a call-up in some quarters and qualifies for Scotland through his grandmother from Dumfries. Lancaster junior was signed by his dad for Racing 92 in the summer from Ealing Trailfinders and has featured in all seven of the Paris club’s Top 14 matches this season, starting three at inside centre and coming off the bench in the other four. He can also play fly-half.

Townsend likes to use autumn as a time to try out new things ahead of the Six Nations and the matches with Fiji and Portugal in particular offer him the opportunity. The opener against the Fijians on November 2 takes place before the Test window opens, which means Townsend will not have access to players based outside Scotland. Portugal are a welcome addition to the top-tier autumn circuit after their performances at last year’s World Cup but it is a game that will give Townsend a chance to dabble with selection in between the two heavyweight clashes with South Africa and Australia.

Here are some of the key issues for the coach ahead of the announcement:

Early-season injuries cast a shadow

We are only five weeks into the URC and English Premiership league seasons but injuries have already taken a toll. Kyle Steyn began the campaign impressively with three tries in Glasgow Warriors’ first two games but he also picked up a lower leg ligament injury against Benetton which is likely to rule him out for at least the start of the autumn series. His team-mate, Nathan McBeth, suffered medial collateral ligament damage to his knee in Saturday’s loss to the Sharks and is unlikely to feature which is a shame given he made his international breakthrough on the summer tour. On the other side of the scrum, Javan Sebastian is also crocked after injuring his shoulder playing for Edinburgh’s A team against Bath and may require surgery. Fellow Edinburgh man Sam Skinner is working his way back from a knee op while the series is likely to come too soon for the unlucky Glen Young who picked up a pectoral injury on the summer tour and had to come home after the first game against Canada. There is also a concern around centre Cam Redpath who had to withdraw from Bath’s game against Harlequins at the weekend.

A surfeit of scrum-halves

The summer tour was all about growing squad depth and the performances of Gus Warr, particularly against Canada, suggested the Sale Sharks man is a viable option at scrum-half. But it is a position in which competition is fierce. Ben White was first pick during the Six Nations but has played in only three of Toulon’s seven league matches this season and was replaced by Baptiste Serin during the win over Montpellier at the weekend. Glasgow due George Horne and Jamie Dobie have both started the season well, Horne scoring a double against the Sharks on Saturday. Dobie was involved in all four games on tour and has really grown in stature over the last couple of seasons. His ability to play on the wing is a huge asset, particularly if Steyn is unavailable. Ali Price appeared to have drifted out of the reckoning but the Test Lion was excellent in Edinburgh’s win over Cardiff on Saturday. Townsend is unlikely to pick five scrum-halves for the series so at least one is likely to be disappointed.

Stand-off reshuffle

We will have to wait until the South Africa game for the return of Russell, which means the No 10 jersey is up for grabs for the opener against Fiji. Adam Hastings, Ross Thompson and Ben Healy were the three fly-halves who toured the Americas and we can expect the first two to be included in Townsend’s squad on Wednesday. Hastings is back at Glasgow and although game-time has been limited, he deserves a first Murrayfield outing for Scotland since Fiji last visited in 2022. Thompson has impressed for Edinburgh since switching from Glasgow and his form is part of the reason why Healy is unlikely to be included in the autumn squad. The former Munster man has spent the last two weekends playing for Edinburgh’s second string. Intriguingly, Glasgow’s Tom Jordan qualifies for Scotland on residency grounds next month and could come into contention during the series.

Gray day dawns

Jonny Gray last played for Scotland in their final match of the 2023 Six Nations against Italy and last partnered his brother Richie in the second row the week before, against Ireland. The siblings could now have one last hurrah together at international level. Jonny missed the whole of the 2023-24 season due to knee issues but is back in the groove in France where he has helped Bordeaux make a bright start to the new season. Richie, meanwhile, has agreed a deal to join Toyota Verblitz from Glasgow at the end of November and the move to Japan is likely to bring the curtain down on his storied Scotland career. A recall for Jonny and a fond farewell to Richie is on the cards.

Tighthead troubles

Zander Fagerson continues to lead from the front (row) and is likely to push past the 70-cap mark during the autumn series. But beyond Zander the tighthead prop situation continues to be a cause for concern. WP Nel’s retiral leaves a big hole and Sebastian’s latest setback hasn’t helped. Murphy Walker has long been earmarked to step up but has been unable to get a run of games for Glasgow due to injuries. Elliot Millar Mills and Will Hurd both played on the summer tour but have had only 66 and 49 minutes of rugby each this season, for Northampton and Leicester, respectively.