What Edinburgh and Glasgow require from Champions Cup pool climax with dream and nightmare scenarios

Glasgow are already through, booking their place in the round of 16 with a fine win in France over Clermont. It’s now three bonus-point victories out of three in Pool 1 for Franco’s Smith’s impressive side.

If they can repeat the feat against Saracens at home on Sunday in their final group game it would give them a huge advantage in the knockout phase. That’s because regardless of results elsewhere they would be guaranteed to be one of the two highest ranked sides left in the competition.

That would mean a home tie in the last 16 and, if they were to progress, they would also be at home in the quarter-finals. Were they to make it to the semi-finals - and Glasgow have never gone that far before in the elite club competition - they would have “home country advantage”. Scotstoun would be too small to host a semi which would likely be moved to Hampden or Murrayfield.

It’s an enticing prospect for the Warriors whose comeback win before Christmas over six-time champions Toulouse was a statement result of the sort to strip away any pretence that they are not serious contenders.

After three rounds of fixtures, only Glasgow and Pool 4 leaders Bordeaux Bègles have the maximum 15 points. But there are threats aplenty to both sides’ hopes of maintaining their status as the two highest ranked sides.

Bordeaux, last season’s Champions Cup winners, play Bristol at Ashton Gate on Sunday and could be usurped by their hosts at the top of Pool 4. Pat Lam’s side are only a point behind Bordeaux going into the final group match.

What Glasgow want to avoid

The other main threat to Glasgow and Bordeaux’s top-two aspirations are Leinster who sit atop Pool 3 on 14 points and play Bayonne away on Saturday. Saracens also pose a threat. If they were to beat Glasgow with a bonus point on Sunday while denying their hosts a bonus point they would move above the Warriors and win Pool 2.

Such an outcome would be the nightmare scenario for Smith’s side because first and foremost they must look to top their group as it is the pool winners who earn top ranking.

While a top-two finish would secure a home tie in the last 16, the likelihood is that second-placed sides would be away in the quarter-finals should they go through.

The pool winners will be ranked 1 to 4, the second-placed clubs will be ranked 5 to 8, the third-placed clubs will be ranked 9 to 12, and the fourth-placed clubs will be ranked 13 to 16.

With the top four in each six-team pool qualifying, only eight clubs will miss out on the last 16 but there remains plenty of jeopardy going into the final weekend of group games, not least for Edinburgh.

What Edinburgh require at Bath

Sean Everitt’s side sit second in Pool 2 on ten points and could end up as group winners if they can pull off a shock at the Rec on Friday. Equally, they could miss out on the top four altogether and end up dropping into the second-tier Challenge Cup, the ‘prize’ for teams who finish fifth. Having already accrued 10 points from bonus-point home wins over Toulon and Gloucester, Edinburgh cannot finish bottom of Pool 2 so are guaranteed some form of European knockout rugby when the round of 16 games in both tournaments are staged in April.

Not making it through to the Champions Cup would be a real blow. So much rests on Friday’s game and the matches on Saturday which see Munster host Castres and Gloucester welcome Toulon. Pool 2 is the closest of the four groups, with only six points separating Bath in first place and Castres in sixth.

The big danger for Edinburgh would be a defeat in Bath and wins for Munster and Toulon and it promises to be a nervy weekend for Everitt’s side.

No club has enjoyed more success in the Champions Cup than Toulouse who won the inaugural tournament in 1995-96 and have lifted the trophy a further five times since but they go into the final pool weekend sitting a lowly fourth in Pool 1 following defeats by Glasgow and Saracens.

Their final group fixture is at home to the already-qualifed Sale on Saturday and an early exit for the French giants would be greeted with something akin to apoplexy across the channel. Hollywoodbets Sharks are barking at Toulouse’s heels, two points behind them in fifth place. The South African side host bottom team Clermont.

In Pool 3, Leinster and Harlequins have booked their places in the last 16. Second-placed Quins visit fourth-placed La Rochelle, with the French side only a point ahead of fifth-placed Leicester. The Tigers travel to South Africa to take on third-placed Stormers, with both sides still in the hunt for the top four.

In Pool 4, Bordeaux, Bristol and Northampton Saints have all qualified for the Champions Cup last 16, leaving Pau, Scarlets and Bulls to scrap for the last place. Pau, fourth on five points, host the Bulls, who are bottom on two points. Scarlets, fifth on two points, face Northampton away.

While the Champions Cup format has come in for plenty of criticism this season, it has at least produced a final round of pool fixtures which appear high on drama.