No Toony tombola: This is how I think Scotland will line up in Six Nations opener and why - Fraser Brown

Few saw it coming, particularly when you consider how Scotland started that game in 2024. They led 14-3 and 22-10 in the first half, only to lose 31-29. It was Italy’s first win over Scotland since 2015 and their first home victory in the Six Nations since 2013.

Scotland return to Rome this weekend, and it is a tough way to begin their Six Nations campaign following a difficult autumn and with memories of that 2024 defeat still fresh.

If this were France, England or Ireland, you would expect a hard contest for 50 or 60 minutes before their quality told. For Scotland, it rarely feels that straightforward, and there is a sense of nervousness around this fixture at the Stadio Olimpico.

‘Scotland in microcosm’

That game two years ago was Scotland in microcosm. They appeared in control before losing their grip over a 10-15 minute spell and were unable to wrestle it back. We saw similar patterns in the autumn, particularly against New Zealand and Argentina, where lapses proved costly. A recurring issue for Scotland over the last 10 years.

That said, I am not convinced it will have a major impact on selection. The days of the so-called Toony Tombola are largely over. Gregor has been consistent in key positions, and the team named on Thursday is likely to be familiar.

The front row should be Pierre Schoeman, Ewan Ashman – fitness permitting – and Zander Fagerson. Grant Gilchrist and Scott Cummings look set to start in the second row, with a back row of Rory Darge at seven, Jack Dempsey at eight – again, fitness permitting – and either Matt Fagerson or Jamie Ritchie at six.

One thing that Gregor's never been able to settle on is his back row blend. I think he's always been searching for the perfect six or eight to fit into that system and it has meant that there has been more rotation than you see with some other sides, who often prioritise cohesion over chasing perfect performances. Scotland have perhaps changed too often in search of the ideal blend.

In the backs, Ben White should start at scrum-half, with Finn Russell at ten and the established midfield pairing of Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones. The back three is less certain. Duhan van der Merwe’s involvement for Edinburgh last weekend suggests he may not start for Scotland, while Kyle Steyn’s form makes him difficult to overlook on one wing.

The other wing is less clear. Darcy Graham would normally be a certainty, but Jamie Dobie’s form is impossible to ignore. The only two questions are whether he is fit, and what position does he play? Although primarily a scrum-half, he has arguably been Scotland’s most consistent winger this season and is the URC’s top try-scorer.

Blair Kinghorn has made the Scotland 15 jersey his own in recent seasons but he’s also been playing at 10 and on the wing for Toulouse, while Tom Jordan’s ability to cover 10, 12 and 15 makes him an ideal bench option. In truth, you can probably name 12 or 13 of the 15 Scotland starters with confidence.

A lot of noise around this player - and rightly so

There has been a lot of noise around Freddy Douglas, and rightly so after his recent form for Edinburgh. However, I expect Darge to get the nod at seven. When Darge broke through he was outstanding, and his consistency has only improved. Because he delivers week after week, he sometimes escapes the headlines, but his performances over the last six to eight weeks, particularly in Europe, have been exceptional. The fact is that he's been in a team where they've all been 8.5 or 9 out of 10.

Dempsey's probably been the star performer in that back row, but Jack's level has been just so high over those European games that it maybe overshadows what Matt Ferguson and Darge have been doing because they’ve also both been outstanding.

Douglas’ impact at the breakdown has been remarkable. His turnover numbers are staggering, and he has added size and weight over the last 18 months. I think he has been quite open about that, saying that he wanted to add some more bulk because he felt like he needed it for the benefit of his carrying game and his collisions in defence, and he has definitely improved in those areas.

Test rugby, however, is a different challenge. While he may not yet be a starter, he could be a potent option from the bench, particularly if Scotland are chasing the game late on.

Gregor has traditionally gone for back-row players who can cover every position on the bench and they’ve maintained the levels of the starting players. When you’ve had Jamie Ritchie, Josh Bayliss or Andy Onyeama-Christie on the bench, they've come on and the levels haven't dropped, because the replacements have been as consistent as the starters.

The other argument is to have players on the bench who can change games. We’re talking someone like Henry Pollock or the Curry brothers for England, or the South African bomb squad.

If Scotland had Freddy on the bench, then that's someone that's going to come on and they can completely change the dynamic of the game because they bring a very different skill set to what's already on the pitch.

Where Italy could hurt Scotland

Up front, Italy will be a real test. Their pack is physical and awkward, particularly at scrum time, where games can quickly descend into a dogfight.

Someone like Marco Riccioni can be very dominant, but he can also be very, very messy as well. The set-piece is going to be fascinating. Scotland-Italy matches often swing back and forth, with neither side able to dominate for the full 80 minutes.

Italy have also got some proper game-breakers in the back line. I look at the centre partnership of Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello and they would walk into almost any team. They're hard, abrasive runners, but they've got really good soft skills. More importantly, they're a great combination defensively. They've played a lot of rugby together for Italy. They're powerful guys and I think we will see Italy trying to shut down the 10, 12, 13 axis of Scotland.

If Italy manage to frustrate Scotland in the midfield, then it's going to be one of those sort of ding-dong battles where there could be a lot of mistakes, particularly handling errors and dropped balls. Italy have always actually been very good at capitalising on errors.

Despite the risks, I expect Scotland to win. It may be tight, but Scotland tend to start championships well. Italy could feel the pressure early, particularly at home in one of the fixtures they will have targeted.

Scotland arrive with relatively few injuries, a solid build-up and a sense of being written off that may actually work in their favour. Everyone usually builds Scotland up, but not this year — and that might just suit them. Let’s hope so.

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