The Open 2024: Who will win at Troon and what does weather have in store?

The slogan for the world’s oldest major is certainly apt and, before looking at the potential champions on this occasion, it is probably best to start with that ‘forged by nature’ part because, let’s face it, this event more than other, certainly as far as the majors are concerned, can be determined by outside factors and you only need to look back to a dreadful second day weather-wise here eight years ago for proof of that.

So, what does Mother Nature have in store for us on this occasion? Thursday’s opening round could certainly be testing. Light rain or drizzle is likely at points during the day while a wind from the south to south-east is expected to gust up to 25mph in the early afternoon before easing a bit by early evening.

Something similar – the wind could blow more than 30mph –is on the cards on Friday before it is likely to remain “changeable” over the weekend. In short, the overhead conditions are going to be testing and that’s going to make it very interesting indeed as the world’s top players tackle the Ayrshire links for a tenth time in the game’s oldest major and, for many, their favourite by far.

“We could have teed it up this morning,” declared Martin Slumbers, The R&A’s CEO, on Thursday as he faced the media in an annual press conference on the eve of the tournament. “The golf course is ready. We've been holding the greens back a little bit because there were some concerns tomorrow that we might have some pretty strong wind, but the excess wind that was forecast is diminished. So we sped the greens up a bit this morning, and it will be a little bit quicker come tomorrow morning, and then we'll just let it evolve as the weekend goes.”

After the opening round in last year’s event at Royal Liverpool, action was required to make the bunkers a bit less penal after a number of players complained about golf balls nestling close to steep faces due to the way they had been prepared. No such action is expected to be required on this occasion, but, speaking from experience after seeing what’s in store, the bunkers on this course are brutal.

“They're hazards. They're deep. They've got big faces, and they're designed to stay out of,” opined Slumbers. “We've been looking very carefully at the sand, and I think some of the players have commented how we've pushed them up a little bit to give them a slight chance to be able to get out. As you know, links golf is very simple – stay out of the bunkers!”

As for who that champion might be, the first thing that needs to be explained is why this field this year is 157 as opposed to the traditional 156. It’s only the second time that figure has been exceeded since 1995 and was actually due to be 159 before David Duval, a former champion, withdrew last Friday then Swede Sebastian Soderberg on Wednesday afternoon, which means that Ewen Ferguson and Marcel Siem are heading out in a two-ball in the opening two rounds.

“The target is 156, but it's not the first time we've been above 156. The real reason we slipped up to 158 for tomorrow is we have tried really hard to improve the opportunities in final qualifying, to have more spots available,” said Slumbers. “We made a commitment quite a while ago that we would give a minimum of 16 spots to FQ (Final Qualifying). That was on an assumption about who would come in through exemptions and which of our past champions will play.

“In prior years, we probably would have cut the 16 FQs down to 13, but we didn't. We stayed with our commitment, and that's why we're just slightly over. But we don't want to do this as a matter of course. 156 is the number. It's a long enough day on Thursday and Friday and it's going to be a little bit longer.”

Talking of length, players are set to face both the shortest and longest holes on any Open course this week. The Postage Stamp is officially listed as 123 yards but will almost certainly play at just 99 yards in one of the four rounds. In contrast, the par-5 sixth will be the longest hole in Open history at 623 yards.

We had ‘High Noon at Troon’ here in 2016, when Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson, fought out an epic battle over the weekend and the former picked up the Claret Jug with an astonishing 20-under-par total.

The duo are among 18 LIV Golf players teeing up this week and, based on the three majors so far this season, fellow Saudi-backed breakaway circuit man Bryson DeChambeau looks the man to beat on the Ayrshire coast. Sixth in The Masters and second in the PGA Championship, he then won a second US Open title last month. This year’s form guide also points to world No 1 Scottie Scheffler being in the mix on Sunday, but his Open record isn’t exactly sparkling and, on this occasion, missed out on a Genesis Scottish Open warm up.

It helped Brian Harman be crowned Champion Golfer of the Year 12 months ago and take your pick from Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott and, yes, Bob MacIntyre to be the player filling that ‘Won by Champions’ box on this occasion, which, incidentally marks the end of a long and illustrious with The R&A for David Rickman as a true gentleman in golf fills the role of chief referee for the final time.