Scotland counting on Hibs and Dundee United as pressure on to save the coefficient

They each begin their European campaigns tonight, with the pressure not only on them, but on all five SPFL clubs competing on the continent this season to play their part in reviving the Scottish coefficient.

As the Scotland's Coefficient website explains, the country's position within UEFA's all-important ranking system is teetering on a cliff edge, with a lot more nights like the one Russell Martin enjoyed in his first competitive match in charge of Rangers required to avoid tumbling into the abyss over the coming season.

From a high of ninth in 2022-23, Scotland's coefficient will start the new campaign in 17th. Unless that can be improved to 14th, Scottish clubs would go into future campaigns in their worst position since 2012.

That would mean representation dropping from five to four clubs in two years' time, with the number of qualifiers required to reach the league phase of the Champions League, Europa League or Conference League also rising. The league champions, for instance, would face three qualifiers to reach the Champions League, instead of the one facing Celtic this season after three years of direct entry.

Falling out of the top 12 already also means that the guaranteed league place for the Scottish Cup winners has been lost for the coming season while the team finishing third in the Premiership will now enter in the Conference League in the second qualifying round instead of the same stage of the Europa League.

Hibs up against it in Denmark

Rangers got the coefficient mission - and the Russell Martin era - off to a perfect start with the 2-0 win over Panathinaikos at Ibrox on Tuesday, now it is over to Hibs and Dundee United to maintain the positive momentum.

Hibs face the far more difficult challenge with David Gray's side the underdogs in their Europa League second qualifying round tie against FC Midtjylland - a side bankrolled by Denmark's richest man, Anders Holch Povlsen, and with an estimated squad value of €76.90 million. Keeping the tie alive for the return leg at Easter Road next week will be the priority from Thursday's first leg in Herning.

“We know if we play to our maximum we’re a very good side but we know we need to be at that level because this is a very tough tie,” said Gray after he and his players endured a five-hour flight delay prior to their departure from Edinburgh Airport on Wednesday. “They are a good side, well coached, but we know what we’ve done last season and we’re concentrating on what we can do. This is a tie over 180 minutes, so you need to remember if you go a goal up or a goal down early there’s still a lot of football still to be played.”

On the other hand, Jim Goodwin's United would be letting themselves and the country down if they failed to overcome minnows UNA Strassen from Luxembourg in the Conference League second qualifying round, with the first leg taking place at Tannadice on Thursday night.

For Scotland to maintain the coefficient status quo, at least one of these teams will need to punch above their weight and reach the group stages of either the Europa or Conference League, with Scotland's Coefficient warning that the country will "not finish in the top 15 unless we have four teams in the league phase".

Historic campaign required

For Hibs that will mean winning at least two ties as reaching the Europa League play-off provides the safety net of a guaranteed place in the Conference League. United, meanwhile, will have to win three ties. It will be very difficult.

Scotland has never had more than three teams in the group stages in the same season so it will take a historic campaign to salvage the coefficient. Having all five teams qualify for the league phase seems like too much to ask, but would be potentially game-changing.

Celtic and Aberdeen are guaranteed their places - if either fail to reach the Champions League or Europa League then they have the fallback of the Europa League and Conference League respectively.

Rangers will also secure Conference League football at the very least if they complete the job against Panathinaikos in Athens next week, although they will be setting their aims higher.

As Scotland's biggest and wealthiest clubs, the onus is very much on Celtic and Rangers to carry the coefficient. It is Hibs and United though who will likely hold the key to salvaging it - for the sake of their own European hopes and any other Scottish club with ambitions of competing in Europe in the coming years.

Hibs came close to the achievement two years ago, making it through two Conference League qualifying rounds and were unfortunate to meet Aston Villa at the play-off stage. Luck of the draw can play a huge part.

If Hibs do upset the odds against Midtjylland then a less formidable opponent in Fredrikstad awaits in the next round. United would likely meet a stern opponent in Rapid Vienna, assuming the Austrians overcome Montenegrin outfit FK Decic.

Defeat for Hibs would drop them into the Conference League third qualifying round, where they have been handed another tough draw against the winner of the tie between FC Oleksandriya of Ukraine and Serbian outfit Partizan Belgrade.

No safety net for United

There is no safety net for United, however. It's win or bust as they look to avoid some of the ignominious exits that have hampered Scotland's ranking in recent years such as Hearts failing to beat Moldovan minnows Petrocub last term, Motherwell losing to Sligo Rovers two years ago and Kilmarnock being knocked out by Connah's Quay Nomads pre-Covid.

United manager Goodwin is taking nothing for granted against a Strassen side ranked 404th in the UEFA club rankings - 166 places behind the Tangerines.

“Technically they look a good team," Goodwin stressed. "They look a very well coached team as well, a real understanding in their patterns of play and how they want to perform in the game.

"So people may look at it on paper and think that we’ll be heavy favourites going into it, but we certainly haven’t been planning for the game with that mindset.

"We’re expecting a really difficult fixture tomorrow night at Tannadice and we know it’s not going to be easy, but I believe if my players apply themselves properly and have the correct mindset coming into the game then we can come out on top.”

The coefficient is counting on it.