The World Cup results Scotland need if they finish third - and the nightmare scenarios
The state of play in the other groups going into the final round of fixtures
We are now into the final round of group matches as the battle for places in the last 32 heats up.
For Scotland, a win against Brazil on Wednesday night will guarantee a place in the top two of Group C. Anything less and they will be in third place and waiting on results in the 11 other groups to determine whether they are one of the top eight third-placed finishers.
A draw would leave the Scots in a very favourable position, on four points with a goal difference of zero. But a defeat would see them finish Group C with three points and a negative goal difference.
Scotland fans, therefore, might need to keep a close eye on what’s going on across the USA, Canada and Mexico over the next few days.
There is wriggle room, as Scotland could afford to have seven third-placed teams with a better record than them. But go beyond that and Scotland would be eliminated from the tournament.
We take a look at the results Scotland want - and don’t want - in the other ten groups should they fail to beat Brazil in Miami.
Group A
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Mexico | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| South Korea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Czech Republic | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| South Africa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Thursday, 2am: Czech Republic v Mexico (Mexico City) and South Africa v South Korea (Guadeloupe)
What Scotland want: This one is fairly straightforward. If both the Czechs and South Africans fail to win, then the most the third-placed team can get to is two points.
Nightmare scenario: If the Czechs win and South Korea avoid defeat, then the Czechs would finish third on four points. A South Africa win would demote the South Koreans to third on three points with a goal difference of at least -1. The worst outcome of all is the Czechs and South Africans both winning.
Group B
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Canada | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 4 |
| Switzerland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| Qatar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
Wednesday, 8pm: Switzerland v Canada (Vancouver) and Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar (Seattle)
What Scotland want: Switzerland v Canada isn’t on the radar. Bosnia v Qatar is. Scotland want the Bosnians and the Qataris to play out a draw, leaving them both on two points - and behind Scotland.
What Scotland don’t want: A win for either Bosnia or Qatar moves them on to four points in third place.
Group D
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| USA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| Australia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Paraguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| Turkey | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Friday, 3am: Turkey v USA (Los Angeles) and Paraguay v Australia (Santa Clara).
What Scotland want: The USA v Turkey game is irrelevant but the Australia v Paraguay game is not. An Australia win would be the most preferable, leaving Paraguay on three points in third with at least -4 goal difference.
What Scotland don’t want: Australia and Paraguay draw, leaving the third-placed Paraguayans on four points.
Group E
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Germany | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| Ivory Coast | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Ecuador | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| Curacao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
Thursday, 9pm: Curacao v Ivory Coast (Philadelphia) and Ecuador v Germany (New Jersey).
What Scotland want: Simple. Germany and Ivory Coast to avoid defeat, leaving Ecuador in third on two points.
What Scotland don’t want: There are a few dangers here. If Ecuador or Curacao both win, then the fourth-placed team is guaranteed to have four points. If Curacao are the only of the pair to prevail, then the Ivorians would be third on three points with a negative goal difference. If Ecuador win and Ivory Coast win or draw, then the third-placed team would have four points.
Group F
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Japan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Sweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Friday, 12am: Tunisia v Netherlands (Kansas City) and Japan v Sweden (Arlington).
What Scotland want: Tunisia are guaranteed to finish bottom so we don’t have much skin the game with their match against the Dutch (unless Scotland beat Brazil, in which case we play one of the top two in this group). In relation to third, it’s all about Japan v Sweden. A Japanese victory - ideally by a few goals - to leave Sweden on three points with a negative goal difference, please.
What Scotland don’t want: Sweden to avoid defeat against the Japanese. That would leave the third-placed team on four points.
Group G
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Egypt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| Iran | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Belgium | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| New Zealand | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Saturday, 4am: New Zealand v Belgium (Vancouver) and Egypt v Iran (Seattle).
What Scotland want: Egypt to beat Iran and New Zealand to defeat or draw with Belgium, leaving the third-placed team on two points.
What Scotland don’t want: If Iran draw with Egypt, then the third-placed team is guaranteed to have three points with a goal difference of zero. Even worse would be a win for the Iranians and a win for either Belgium or New Zealand, as the third-placed team would have four points.
Group H
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Spain | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Uruguay | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cape Verde | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
Saturday, 1am: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia (Houston) and Uruguay v Spain (Zapopan)
What Scotland want: The key result here is Spain beating Uruguay. If that happens, the third-placed team is guaranteed to have two points.
What Scotland don’t want: If Uruguay avoid defeat against Spain then the third-placed team - either them or Cape Verde - would have three points and a goal difference of zero. Even worse would be a win for Uruguay and a victory for either Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia, as the third-placed team would have four points.
Group I
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| Norway | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| Senegal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| Iraq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Friday, 8pm: Norway v France (Foxborough) and Senegal v Iraq (Toronto).
What Scotland want: France v Norway has no bearing on third. It’s all about Senegal v Iraq. Draw, please.
What Scotland don’t want: If Senegal win, they will be on three points with at worst, a goal difference of -2. A heavy Iraqi win would also be most unwelcome - although that is far less likely.
Group J
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Argentina | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| Austria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Algeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| Jordan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Sunday, 3am: Algeria v Austria (Kansas City) and Jordan v Argentina (Arlington).
What Scotland want: Argentina will finish top and Jordan are bottom, so that match is inconsequential to this. Algeria v Austria, however, isn’t. The best outcome would be a heavy Austrian win to leave Algeria on three points with a poor goal difference. If Algeria win, the preference would be by a lot of goals so that Austria’s goal difference suffers. But whatever happens, the third-placed team in this group will finish with at least three points.
Nightmare scenario: A draw, because it would leave Algeria in third on four points. As the last match of the group stages, both teams will have the advantage of knowing exactly what is required in the third-place battle ...
Group K
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Colombia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| Portugal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| DR Congo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| Uzbekistan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Sunday, 3am: Colombia v Portugal (Miami) and DR Congo v Uzbekistan (Atlanta)
What Scotland want: The game to watch from a Scottish perspective is DR Congo v Uzbekistan. A draw here is the most favourable outcome, as it would leave DR Congo in third on two points.
What Scotland don’t want: If DR Congo win, then the third-placed team in this group would have four points. An Uzbekistan win by five goals or more would move them into third on to three points and a goal difference of -2 - but let’s be frank, that’s not going to happen.
Group L
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| England | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| Ghana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| Panama | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Saturday, 10pm: Panama v England (New Jersey) and Croatia v Ghana (Philadelphia).
What Scotland want: The third-placed team in this group is guaranteed to finish on three points. So from that perspective, Scotland want Ghana to win by as many goals as possible to leave Croatia with a poor goal difference. A heavy Croatia win would also be okay as long as it was done by a few goals too.
What Scotland don’t want: A draw between Ghana and Croatia would leave the Croats in third on four points.
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