Can Scotland still qualify for World Cup knockouts? What Scotland require after Brazil defeat

The historic result Scotland required to guarantee progression never looked on the cards from the moment a Scott McKenna error gifted Vinicius Junior a seventh minute opener.

The Real Madrid winger scored his second in first half stoppage time before Matheus Cunha added a third in the second half to put Scotland's place in the tournament at serious risk.

The result - combined with the 1-0 win over Haiti and 1-0 defeat by Morocco in Boston - leaves Scotland third in Group C on three points and with a goal difference of minus three.

Whether that is good enough for Steve Clarke's side to make history and reach the next round will only become clear as the remaining group matches are played out.

Only the top two teams from the 12 groups are guaranteed a place in the last 32. Brazil progress as Group C winners and will face the runner-up from Group F, which will be either the Netherlands, Japan, or Sweden. Morocco, who came from behind twice to beat Haiti 4-2 in their final group game, go through as runners-up and will meet the Group F winner, which will be one of the aforementioned teams.

However, all is not lost for Scotland.

Can Scotland still qualify for the World Cup knockout stages?

The 2026 World Cup will also see the eight best placed teams who finish third in their group qualify for the knockout stages. This presents Scotland with a chance of staying in the tournament.

All will depend on what happens in the other groups over the next four days. Scotland will be hoping that at least four teams who finish third in their group do so with a worse record than their own. That will be less than three points, or with three points but a worse goal difference than minus three. If a team has three points and the same goal difference as Scotland then it will come down to goals scored. With only one goal scored in the tournament, this would be unlikely to fall in Scotland's favour.

As things stands Scotland are seventh in the live third place table. They could move up or down the ranking depending on results elsewhere. Opta rank the chances of going through in third place with three points and a minus three goal difference at 49.2 per cent.

World Cup third place table as it stands

1 Bosnia 4pts (-1)

2 Sweden 3pts (0)

3 Croatia 3pts (-1)

4 Korea Republic 3pts (-1)

5 Algeria 3pts (-2)

6 Paraguay 3pts (-2)

7 Scotland 3pts (-3)

8 Cabo Verde 2pts (0)

9 Belgium 2pts (0)

10 Congo DR 1pt (-1)

11 Ecuador 1pt (-1)

12 Senegal 0pt (-3)

What results do Scotland need from the other groups?

Two other groups have already concluded and have not fallen in Scotland's favour. Bosnia secured third place in Group B on four points with a 3-1 win over Qatar while South Africa’s shock 1-0 win over South Korea left the Koreans third in Group A on three points and minus one goal difference.

There are nine other groups still to conclude and Scotland need four of these results to fall in their favour:

Group D - Australia to beat Paraguay by two goals would leave Paraguay in third place on three points with a minus four goal difference at best.

Group E - Germany to avoid defeat by Ecuador and Ivory Coast to avoid defeat by Curacao guarantees third place will be on no more than two points.

Group F - Japan to beat Sweden by at least four goals. The Swedes are currently on three points and level goal difference.

Group G - Egypt to beat Iran and Belgium to avoid defeat to New Zealand means third place will be on two points.

Group H - Only one result required. If Spain beat Uruguay, the third-placed team is guaranteed to have two points.

Group I - Senegal v Iraq to end in a draw otherwise one of them will finish third on three points. If there is to be a winner, Scotland would prefer it to be Iraq by less than three goals as their goal difference is currently minus six. If Senegal win by one goal then they would have a goal difference of minus two.

Group J - Austria inflicting a two-goal defeat on Algeria would leave the Africans third on three points with a minus four goal difference, leaving them below Scotland in the third place standings.

Group K - A draw between DR Congo and Uzbekistan would be the most favourable outcome, as it would leave DR Congo in third on two points. However, an Uzbekistan win by less than three goals would leave them third on three points with a poorer goal difference than Scotland.

Group L - The third-placed team in this group is guaranteed to finish on three points. Only a Ghana win over Croatia by three goals, or a Croatia win over Ghana by four goals would benefit Scotland.

Who will Scotland face in the World Cup last 32 if they qualify

Scotland are currently projected to play co-hosts Mexico in the round of 32 if they qualify. The match would take place at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Wednesday, July 1 at 2am UK time. This could be subject to change.