SNP warned 'significant risks' in net zero plans as fears raised over lack of heat pumps strategy

The Scottish government has tabled its draft climate change plan and intends to publish the full blueprint before the Holyrood election, despite concerns from opponents over a lack of time to scrutinise the strategy.

But the Climate Change Committee (CCC), which was set up under the Climate Change Act 2008 to advise the UK government and devolved governments on reducing emissions, has warned that plans for sectors including heat in buildings, agriculture and so-called negative emissions technologies lack the detail needed to ensure action follows commitments.

In a report sent to SNP ministers ahead of the full plan being published, the CCC has stressed that “the targets are achievable provided the Scottish government urgently utilises policy powers”, starkly warning that “now it is time to deliver”.

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The Scottish government was forced to revise and water down its legal climate targets after belatedly admitting an ambition to cut emissions by 75 per cent by 2030 was not achievable, and has replaced the targets with five-year carbon budgets - the strategy used by the UK government and welcomed by the CCC.

The CCC’s report warns that “most of the required emission savings” in the first part of the new targets from 2026 to 2030 “have credible plans with only some risks”.

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But it adds that “there are significant risks” to achieving much of the ambitions in the second and third carbon budgets up to 2040.

Speaking to The Scotsman, CCC chief executive, Nigel Toppings, said: “In this first budget, from 2026 to 2030, there’s really pretty good policy coverage - 91 per cent no or low risk is good. And then we start to see gaps emerging in two and three. So it’s a game of two halves.”

Ambitious initial plans to replace fossil fuel heating systems with heat pumps and heat networks, drawn up when the Scottish Greens were in government, have been watered down and delayed by SNP ministers - with the flagship heat in buildings bill now postponed until the Holyrood election.

The CCC’s report warns that the draft climate plan “lacks sufficient plans” for heat in buildings, stressing that “very little emissions reduction is projected to occur over the next ten years, compensated for by a rapid acceleration in the late 2030s”.

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The document adds that “it is not clear what will drive this acceleration, which will be challenging for supply chains to deliver”, warning that “this ‘delay and catch-up’ approach therefore carries significant risk”.

Mr Topping said that “addressing the lack of detail on buildings would be particularly important to us”, describing the draft plans as a “worrying ‘do nothing, do nothing then sort everything’” strategy.

Mr Topping also pointed to a lack of detail over negative emissions technologies, such as carbon capture and storage - with many of those policy levers dependent on decisions by the UK government. He also pointed to faster action needed to kickstart a “just transition for farmers”.

The CCC’s report also warns that “a significant and sustained increase in tree planting and peatland restoration is needed”.

Lang Banks, director at WWF Scotland, said the CCC’s report “makes it crystal clear that much greater action is needed to cut carbon emissions from Scotland’s homes and land”, adding that “these are two areas we expect to see ministers significantly improve if the final plan is to be seen as credible”.

Climate Action Secretary Gillian Martin said: “The draft plan includes over 150 actions key to achieving Scotland’s net zero goal while supporting people to make and adjust to the changes required.

“We will use this feedback to inform the forthcoming final Climate Change plan – which will help inform future decision making and ensure that we reach net zero in a way that is fair, ambitious and capable of rising to the emergency before us.”