.jpeg?trim=0,0,0,0&crop=&width=640&quality=70&enable=upscale)
On Tuesday, November 5, the United States of America will go to the polls to decide who will spend the next four years in the White House - Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
Both candidates have had the momentum behind them at different points since current President Joe Biden announced he’d not be seeking a second term, but neither have been able to open up a significant lead.
In order to win, one of them will need to reach a majority of 270 electoral college votes out of the 538 available (535 electors from the 50 states and three from the federal District of Columbia).
And to get to that magic number they’ll need to win the popular vote in as many states as possible - particularly in the so-called ‘swing states’ where both parties attract almost equal support.
Here’s what the bookies think is going to happen. They rarely get it wrong, although famously had Hillary Clinton as a clear favourite when Donald Trump last became President. Will they get it right this time?
5. Trump to win the popular vote
The bookies reckon that the most likely outcome of the election is for Donald Trump to win but fail to get a majority of votes. That's only happened five times in history, the last time being in Trump's own win over Hillary Clinton in 2016 (he polled 46.1 per cent to Clinton's 48.2 per cent). The bookies say Trump only has a 11/4 per cent chance of winning the popular vote - a probability of just 26.7 per cent. | Getty Images
.jpeg?crop=4:3&trim=&width=800)
6. Winning party
Leaving the candidates out of the equation, the Republican Party are favourites to win the election with odds of 8/13 (61.9 per cent probability), with the Democrats flagging at 5/4 (44.4 per cent probability). The odds of any other party winning are an astronomical 500/1 (a probability of 0.2 per cent). | Canva/Getty Images
7. Trump's likely vote share percentage
The bookies reckon the most likely final vote share at the election for Donald Trump is between 48-50.99 per cent - believing this will be enought to win the White House. The odds of that are 6/5 - a 45.5 per cent probability. He's 5/4 (a probability of 44.4 per cent) to win 45-47.99 of the vote. It would be a shock for him to win over 51 per cent, priced at 11/2, or a probability of 15.4 per cent. | Getty Images
8. Harris' likely vote share percentage
According to the bookmakers, Kamala Harris has a 54.5 per cent chance of winning between 48-50.99 of the votes - with odds of 5/6. There's a 33.3 per cent chance she'll do even better, polling 51-53.99 per cent - odds of 2/1. Any other result has less than 14 per cent chance of happening. | Getty Images