The year ahead in Westminster: EU relations, benefits reform and elections

Relations with the EU, benefits reform and elections in different parts of the UK will all present problems for the Prime Minister.

He has had a tough time in office so far, with suggestions that he could be ousted in the last few months.

Both he and the Chancellor have bought themselves a bit of time with a Budget that was welcomed by Labour MPs.

But there will be no rest as next year’s challenges will be just as big.

Review of UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement

Brexit is a can of worms the PM probably doesn’t want to reopen - especially given Reform UK is ahead of Labour in the polls. But unfortunately, he has no choice.

The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement is up for review in 2026, with a summit expected in the spring.

The UK Government announced a ‘reset’ of relations with the bloc in May, where both parties held their first joint summit since Brexit.

It hailed the agreement with Brussels on areas including food standards and energy, saying it had cut red tape for travellers and businesses.

But it came under criticism for granting European trawlers access to British fishing waters for a further 12 years.

It is unclear what changes will come along next year, with some pushing for the UK to rejoin the customs union.

This has already presented problems, with more than a dozen Labour MPs (none of them Scottish) defying the party whip and backing a Lib Dem bill on the topic.

Benefits reform

The threat of a rebellion forced the UK Government to U-turn on its proposed cuts to Personal Independence Payment (does not apply in Scotland) and Universal Credit eligibility in 2025.

The proposals were set to push 250,000 people into relative poverty, which many Labour MPs baulked at.

Some 120 MPs signed a letter asking the UK Government to reconsider its proposals.

So it watered down the plans and said it would conduct a review into PIP, led by minister Stephen Timms. This will be published in the autumn.

Another review into the role of mental health issues and disabilities in youth unemployment is being carried out by former health secretary Alan Milburn and will be published in the summer.

With both reviews being published, and Glasgow-raised Pat McFadden now DWP Secretary, it is expected that the UK Government will have another stab at benefits reform in 2026.

This will only be possible if the Prime Minister makes it to then.

Elections

Of course there are Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd and council elections across England in spring.

Things are not looking good for Labour. They trail the SNP in Scotland, are likely to lose control of Wales for the first time and face a drubbing in English councils.

Sir Keir has managed to stave off potential challenges to his leadership for now.

But poor results in next years elections would pile more pressure on him.

Reports have already suggested Scottish Labour MPs have been working to oust the Prime Minister.

If Labour don’t win the Holyrood election (which currently looks like the case), then more knives will be out.

It could spell the end for Sir Keir - and a leadership contest would ensue.

Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and Health Secretary Wes Streeting would be the two most likely candidates to take over.

MPs leaving Westminster

If they have their way, two MPs will be leaving the House of Commons for Holyrood in 2026.

The SNP’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn is standing to become the MSP for Aberdeen South and North Kincardine, while fellow Nationalist Stephen Gethins is the party’s candidate for Dundee City East.

If they win - as they are expected to - then by-elections will have to be held in their Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry seats.

Not only would this mean there are two new Scottish MPs, but it also takes out nearly a quarter of the SNP group.

Both Mr Flynn and Mr Gethins are solid performers in the chamber, with the former gaining particularly plaudits from the UK press for his style at PMQs before the election.

The SNP would be looking for a new Commons leader, with Angus and Perthshire Glens MP Dave Doogan the most likely candidate.

The Nationalists would expect to win the two potential by-elections. But given that Mr Gethins only has a majority of 859, it is not a foregone conclusion.

Scottish MPs to look out for

Last year saw a lot of action among Scottish MPs. The main events were Douglas Alexander replacing Ian Murray as Scottish Secretary and Brian Leishman losing the Labour whip (and having it restored four months’ later).

But there are other Scottish MPs to look out for next year.

Glasgow South’s Gordon McKee has made waves with his impressive social media videos.

The 31-year-old - who has a government job as Parliamentary Private Secretary in the Department for Work and Pensions - has been using TikTok to explain UK Government decisions.

They have been very effective. One video - an explainer about UK debt using custard creams and chocolate bourbons - racked up over three million views.

On the backbenches, East Kilbride and Strathaven MP Joani Reid has been caught the eye over her calls for grooming gangs inquiry in Scotland and accusing the SNP of turning Glasgow into a “sanctuary” for asylum seekers.

Whether she will be given a UK Government job in the future is not clear, but Ms Reid is one of the most outspoken Scottish Labour MPs with an eye for a good news line.

For the Tories, Gordon and Buchan MP Harriet Cross is highly regarded among her colleagues.

She has performed well in the House of Commons so far, speaking without notes in a direct style.

Perhaps she is less well-known to the Scottish public because the Conservatives are not going through a strong period.

But with Kemi Badenoch faring better at PMQs and Labour still struggling, Ms Cross could come to the fore.