Scotland's judges issue warning over SNP's early prisoner release plans

The stark intervention comes after SNP Justice Secretary Neil Gray tabled plans to release more prisoners early and end the long-held exemption for sexual offenders and domestic abusers as part of his government’s strategy to curb unsustainable prison populations.

Under Mr Gray’s plans, long-term prisoners could be released and serve the final third of their sentence in the community, with no exemption for sexual offenders, which has previously been the case.

But now the rarely-outspoken Senators of the College of Justice, who make up Scotland’s Supreme Court judges, have set out their concerns over the SNP government’s proposals.

READ MORE: SNP urged to follow Burnham and exempt rapists from early release amid fears 'public safety at risk'

In their response to the government’s plans, the senators have warned that “the suggestion of earlier automatic early release for some or all long-term prisoners have the potential to increase the risks for victims and possible future victims”.

They added: “A properly functioning justice system must have regard to the rights of victims and the safety of the public.

“The proposals appear to be directed more to trying to address prison numbers than a system-wide consideration of how to address reoffending and rehabilitation.”

The response warns that “merely accelerating automatic early release, without additional resources and personnel, will not improve matters for society, victims or those who offend”.

It added: “If anything, it is likely to make matters worse.”

Scottish Government proposals also include changing the definition of a short-term prisoner, who are currently released after serving just 30 per cent of their sentence, or 50 per cent for sexual offenders, from the current four years to five years - meaning more inmates will be released early.

READ MORE: Rape survivors risk being 'let down' as SNP ministers fail to fund flagship sexual offences court

The proposal would also apply the policy to release long-term inmates after serving just two thirds of their sentence “retroactively”, with it applying to all those sentenced after February 2016.

Government documents state that “had this change taken effect on 27 February 2026, around 328 people would have been released on non-parole licence immediately”.

Mr Gray’s proposals are being brought forward as his government grapples with jails in Scotland over capacity by around 800 inmates.

The senators have also called for more studying by government officials before pressing ahead with more early release of prisoners, warning about a potential lack of evidence to justify changing the law.

The response from the Senators of the College of Justice said: “While the issues of prison capacity and overcrowding may be urgent, we consider that more research and time is required to look carefully at the law in these important areas, rather than making quick but far-reaching changes in the law, without sufficient evidence, which may have to be revisited within a short number of years.

“While this would mean that more time would be required to come up with a package of proposals, it is better that it is done properly having regard to public safety and public and judicial confidence in options and arrangements for sentencing and bail.

“Piecemeal reform to try to address overall prisoner numbers has not worked to achieve its stated aims. There is no reason to think that the proposed changes will work any better, beyond a possible initial reduction in prisoner numbers.”

READ MORE: Violent and sexual criminals set for release after two third of sentence under SNP plans

In a scathing assessment, the senators added: “Without more thorough consultation and consideration there is a real risk that changes in the law may, as an unintended consequence of measures designed largely to reduce prisoner numbers, adversely impact on public safety as well as public and judicial confidence in these areas.”

Commenting specifically on the SNP government’s proposal to automatically release long-term prisoners after serving just two thirds of their sentence, as was the case 10 years ago, the senators highlight a “risk of detracting from public protection and reducing public safety”.

They added: “Simply changing the automatic early release provisions for long-term prisoners as proposed, whilst the immediate impact may be to reduce the prison population, is likely to increase the risk of reoffending and, without greater resources, unlikely to bring about any increase in rehabilitation in the community.”

Scottish Conservative justice spokesman, Stephen Kerr MSP said: “This is a damning warning to John Swinney that his reckless early release plans are putting public safety at risk.

“It makes no sense to release dangerous offenders earlier when the very reason they were given extended sentences was the risk they pose to the public.”

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He added: “Yet once again the SNP are more interested in quick solutions rather than taking measures to protect victims and keep communities safe.

“Instead of letting out dangerous offenders early, the SNP should be taking measures to expand prison capacity.

“John Swinney should listen to this warning, scrap these reckless plans, focus on protecting victims and communities not on being soft on crime”.

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Scottish Labour justice spokesperson, Pauline McNeill, said: “We need a long-term plan to tackle the significant challenges in our justice system, which includes giving serious consideration to alternatives to custody, and providing the resources needed to help hard-working prisons staff.

“Police Scotland has also been hampered by years of underfunding by the Scottish Government, with a continued decline in police numbers."

Mr Gray said prisons “will always be necessary for those who pose the highest risk”.

But, he added: “Scotland’s prison population, like many comparable countries, has risen to unsustainable levels and must be addressed.

“We consulted on a range of measures to achieve a sustainable prison population, while maintaining public protection and reducing future offending and responses will be considered to inform next steps.

“This is part of a number of actions to achieve a sustainable prison population including building two new prisons and maximising capacity within the prison estate.”