Scots could face more drastic transport and heating rules amid 2045 net zero fears

SNP ministers were forced to scrap a legally-binding 2030 target to cut emissions by 75 per cent after concluding it was no longer possible to achieve it.

But John Swinney and his government has insisted that the 2045 target to reach net zero, when Scotland’s contribution to the climate crisis will end, remains on track.

The Scottish Government is currently working off a blueprint to reach net zero that pre-dates the pandemic, while the last full climate change plan was drawn up in 2018.

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SNP ministers were forced to amend legislation to delay the updated climate change plan, that was due to be published last year. The UK’s 2050 legal net zero target is dependent on Scotland achieving the same aim by 2045.

Now, the Guardian has reported that consultants have told SNP ministers that “there is a very high risk” Scotland will miss the 2045 target by 20m tonnes of carbon dioxide.

A document reportedly handed to the Scottish Government from consultants Ricardo AEA, has warned the 2045 aim is likely to slip without a step-change in spending on measures to mitigate emissions such as planting new forests, restoring peatland, reforming farming practices and ramping up reliance on negative emissions technologies such as carbon capture and storage.

Scotland has fallen behind targets to restore peatland and plant trees, while emissions from agriculture have largely flatlined.

According to the Guardian, the report states that if negative emissions technologies are not as successful as hoped, “greenhouse gas emissions in 2045 would be close to 20MtCO2e.”

It adds that because of that uncertainty “there is a very high risk that the Scottish government’s statutory targets will not be achieved … without additional policies.”

The delays to the Acorn carbon capture project was partly responsible for SNP ministers ditching their 2030 pledge. But other negative emissions technologies falling short could raise the prospect of more drastic cuts to emissions in other parts of the economy such as heat in buildings and transport.

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The news comes as a new Scottish Government report has warned a “transformation” of the transport system will be needed to reach net zero by 2045.

The draft just transition plan for transport in Scotland states that achieving net zero will “require a transformation in our transport system, and the ways in which we all travel.”

The report adds: “There will need to be a major shift in the vehicles and fuels we use, in our transport and energy infrastructure, and in the transport skills that people learn and deploy.”

Scottish Labour climate spokesperson, Sarah Boyack, said that “for too long the SNP has relied on sticking plaster solutions and chasing headlines”.

She added: “It would be an appalling betrayal if it walks away from its promise to reach net zero by 2045.”

Scottish Conservative net zero spokesperson, Douglas Lumsden, claimed that “SNP ministers need to stop the spin and be upfront with Scots”.

SNP transport secretary, Fiona Hyslop, said: “Tackling the climate emergency is a key priority for this Government and transport remains Scotland’s largest source of emissions.

“While we have achieved much, we know that challenges remain and, critically, of the need to meet those challenges in a way that is fair and just.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “We are committed to ending our contribution to global emissions by 2045 at the latest, as agreed by parliament on a cross-party basis.”