Scotland's benefits bill: why is it soaring and who is actually claiming all the money
The Scottish government has designed a more generous social security system than the rest of the UK, but it has created a funding gap
SNP ministers boast about a generous benefits system that supports Scotland’s most vulnerable in the cost-of-living crisis - but they are facing calls from their political rivals to make cuts to social security as costs are poised to soar in the coming years.
Opponents argue that the funding is “unsustainable” as the Scottish government grapples with a £5 billion funding black hole.
There are also claims that the devolved benefits and its more generous criteria is simply allowing young people not to work - but statistics show that in general, those receiving adult disability payment (ADP) tend to be at the older end of the scale.
What benefits are devolved to the Scottish government?
A total of 11 benefits are devolved to Holyrood - including adult disability payment (ADP), the Scottish government’s flagship Scottish child payment and discretionary housing payments. The applications and payments are administered by Social Security Scotland.
Ministers say ADP has been designed to be more compassionate and accessible than Personal Independence Payment (PIP) used in England and Wales, but financial rates received largely align.
Universal Credit remains reserved to the UK government but Prime Minister Andy Burnham has suggested it could also be shifted to Holyrood as part of a “DWP devolution” arrangement.
Speaking in Motherwell, Mr Burnham said he would “offer Scotland localised employment support, similar to the one in England” that would be “shaped by Holyrood and one that’s right for Scotland”.
How much is the Scottish government spending on social security?
The funding allocated to social security in Scotland has been a bone of contention for the SNP government’s rivals.
This year’s budget, for 2026-2027, SNP ministers committed to invest £7.2 billion in social security assistance, which they argued will ensure around 2 million people will continue to benefit from the Scottish system.
The adult disability payment is the most expensive devolved benefit handed out by Social Security Scotland with almost £8bn of payments administered since its inception in 2022. The Scottish Child Payment is the largest benefit unique to Scotland that is funded directly out of the Scottish budget without support from Westminster.
Is Scottish government spending on benefits going to rise?
Concerns have emerged over the projected costs of supporting social security under the same criteria over the next five years.
Overall, spending on devolved benefits is forecast to grow by an average of 5.7 per cent a year until 2030-2031 when it is expected to reach £9.2bn.
Of the projected increase, around 40 per cent is due to uprating payments in line with inflation while 60 per cent is due to higher take up of disability benefits and carer benefits.
Much of the spending is met by the UK government through the so-called block grant adjustments, which reflects Westminster spending on benefits in the rest of the UK.
But spending by SNP ministers over and above that needs to be found within the Scottish government’s existing finances. Based on the UK government walking back an initial pledge to cut the bill at Westminster, that gap is expected to be £1.082 billion in this financial year, and rise by almost £200m to £1.202bn by 2030-31. That could widen if the UK Labour government does cut back benefits spending and the SNP government wishes to keep spending at the same forecasts.
Roughly two thirds of the expected gap is due to Scotland-only payments, including the Scottish Child Payment.
Who is receiving Scottish benefits?
Authorisation rate for ADP applications has decreased from 34 per cent in 2025-26 to 31 per cent in 2026-27 so far.
Despite some narratives claiming that young people are the only ones benefiting from the disability entitlement, outwith 16 to 18 year olds, there is a trend in Scotland for higher approval rates for older applicants.
Applications from those aged 16-18 are the most likely to be approved with an approval rate of 57 per cent. The lowest approval rate at 31 per cent is for 19-24 year olds and the second highest at 55 per cent for 55-64 year olds.
As the retirement age goes up, it is expected the number of older people applying for and receiving ADP will also increase, across the UK.
Of the applications registered for ADP, 14 per cent came from Glasgow, followed by 8 per cent of applications coming from each of North Lanarkshire and Fife. Six per cent of applications for ADP have come from Edinburgh.
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