Russell Findlay could be out if Tories hold on to only central belt seat

It is the one constituency in the Central Belt which the Conservatives won at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. You would think this means they are desperate to hold onto it.

But if Jackson Carlaw does win the seat, party leader Russell Findlay could be ejected from Holyrood.

Due to the Conservatives’ dwindling support, if the party wins a West Scotland constituency, it may not get any seats on the list.

Mr Findlay is only standing on the list, he faces the real prospect of no longer being an MSP.

But Labour’s Kayleigh Quinn reckons he does not need to worry.

Ms Quinn - who is a former Labour organiser and former office manager for local MP Blair McDougall - said: “I don't think Russell Findlay is in that danger, because the Tory vote here has collapsed.

“We're knocking doors in those sort of territories where you’d expect them to be doing really well, and people volunteer the information to us that they're voting Labour to stop the SNP.

“And these are true blue Conservative supporters. They have been for years, and it's boxes that we've historically never really won.”

Eastwood is one of only five constituencies the Conservatives won across Scotland in 2021. It is also the only urban seat which the Tories hold in either parliament.

But with the party at a low ebb, it is at risk of going to the SNP for the first time, or - keeping in line with the 2024 East Renfrewshire constituency result - returning to Labour.

The seat is in East Renfrewshire and is based around the towns of Newton Mearns, Eaglesham, Giffnock, Thornliebank, Netherlee, Busby and Clarkston. It is fairly affluent and is mostly a commuter area for Glasgow.

Mr Carlaw has represented the constituency since 2016. He has been in the Scottish Parliament since 2007, having been elected on the West Scotland list before that.

He was deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives between 2011 and 2019, before a five-month stint leading the party in 2020.

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According to Mr Carlaw, the “pressing” issues include a potential toll for non-Glasgow residents driving into the city, new battery storage plants in the area and “the threat” of council tax property revaluations.

Before Mr Carlaw, the MSP for the area was Labour’s Ken McIntosh. He unsuccessfully ran for the party leadership in the 2011 and 2015 contests, before becoming Holyrood’s presiding officer in 2016. He stood down five years later.

The SNP has never won the Holyrood constituency - coming 2,000 votes behind the Tories in 2021.

But the Nationalists have twice represented the seat of East Renfrewshire in the Commons. On both occasions the MP was Kirsten Oswald.

Having lost to Labour at the 2024 general election, Ms Oswald is now the SNP’s Holyrood candidate for Eastwood.

Ms Oswald said: “I think the big issues are actually the same in Eastwood as they are across the country.

“It doesn’t matter, I don’t think, where you are. What you’re going to hear from people is that they’re worried about the cost of living.

“They want to make sure that what they need in terms of services are there for them.”

She added: “It’s quite an engaged area, people are really invested in the community.”

What makes Eastwood different to other commuter constituencies is that it is the only area with a significant Jewish population - with 45 per cent of Scotland’s Jewish community living in the seat.

Mr Carlaw believes this could work in his favour: “I have been very much identified with standing with that community throughout the year, not just on Holocaust Memorial Day.

”That doesn't mean I agree with every last thing that the Israeli government does.”

He continued: “There is a special responsibility, I think, given the Jewish population here and the continuing sense of a real threat to that population, but you have to stand up and be counted.

“I've been prepared to do that. It's not always been politically easy. It's not always been easy in the Scottish Parliament, where at times I felt like I'm the lone voice, or merely one of a few who have been prepared to stand up and say things.”

He added that he thinks the SNP and Labour will suffer among the Jewish community because of their approach to the war in Gaza.

Mr Carlaw said: “I think the unilateral recognition of Palestine by the Prime Minister, endorsed by the First Minister, was very badly received.

“It was seen, frankly, as a reward to Hamas, who are very much still in control in Gaza for the terrorist attack on October 7th.

“So it went down very badly, and that sentiment was widely expressed at the hustings.

“I don't think the SNP have ever really got a strong vote from the Jewish community. In the broadest sense, they're not a very nationalist type of community for historical reasons, but it has been a community that has also supported Labour.

“I think that they are very, very disappointed with the fact that the Westminster Labour Government has, as they see it, made life much more difficult and unsafe for them at the present time.”

Ms Oswald said: “[Eastwood] is a place where people look out for each other.

“People with different histories, different backgrounds, are neighbours and value the fact that they're neighbours.

“It's somewhere where there are really strong and positive relationships that go back a long time.

“So I guess that's one of the things that I think is quite special about Eastwood, is that people there are interested in and value the diversity of our community.”

Ms Quinn said she had managed to convince the Jewish community that she was a “safe pair of hands” despite unease with the UK Government.

She said: “Labour had its toughest time with the Jewish community when Jeremy Corbyn was the leader, but during that time, I was one of the whistle-blowers who reported what was going on at the party to the Equality and Human Rights Commission. So [I am] getting that across to the community.”

She continued: “There's a really strong feeling amongst the Jewish community that the SNP doesn't stand up for them.

“They also have a fear with the Greens, and a lot of the things that Green candidates have said in this election are abhorrent towards the Jewish community, so they don't want the SNP to get in and let the Greens in through the back door.”