Professor Sir John Curtice gives his predictions for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election

With less than 48 hours to go until the polls open for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, it looks to be a “close” fight between the SNP and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Professor Curtice predicts it will be tight, and the winner might come away with less than a third of the overall votes.

Speaking on BBC Good Morning Scotland, he said: “Whoever wins, the SNP are the favourites but there are no polls to anticipate that, but if Hamilton follows evidence of the national polls, it will be a close contest.

“It ought to be close between SNP and Reform, and maybe Reform will do somewhat better than in the national polls.

"But we are looking at a winner with less than a third of the vote and winning by a small margin.”

Prof Curtice says eyes will be on this week’s by-election result to see if it can give an indication of how things will pan out at next year’s Holyrood election.

The SNP is currently leading the Holyrood polls at 33 per cent, while Scottish Labour has fallen back down to where it was polling in 2021.

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This comes after Scottish Labour climbed to be neck-and-neck with the SNP in the Holyrood polls last summer.

Prof Curtice said: “The by-election will tell you where we are in Scotland, but it doesn’t set Scotland on a guaranteed path.

“But if the SNP wins Hamilton with a diminished share of the vote, and Labour falls back from where it was in 2021, it will confirm the evidence we have from opinion polls.

“It will also confirm that the mood has changed on Anas Sarwar moving into Bute House and that the SNP looks favourite to remain in office.

“If Labour wins, even though they have not had the easiest of by-election campaigns, they can claim a fair amount of credit, perhaps more than necessary.”

Yesterday Mr Farage visited Scotland where he said it was “not impossible” but “improbable” that his party would win Thursday’s by-election. He said he was confident of coming third in the race, and said it would be a nice surprise to come second.