How the SNP has turned its fortunes around under John Swinney

Things are looking pretty positive for the SNP - after a disastrous general election 18 months ago, they are once again topping the polls and look set to form the next government.

All of this has happened under the stewardship of John Swinney, the bank manager politician who was drafted in to “steady the ship” and save the party from further collapsing in on itself.

While some credit of this success needs to go to Mr Swinney and his leadership skills, there are a lot of other factors at play here.

“It is a steadying of the ship, not a roaring recovery,” pollster Mark Diffley told The Scotsman. “The SNP got 30 per cent at the general election 18 months ago when he had just taken over, and that was a low point.

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“They are now polling at 35 per cent, which is a modest recovery, but is nowhere near the 48 per cent they got in 2021.”

There is a notably different political environment this time around compared to 2021, namely the appearance of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and the “off-the-scale unpopularity” of Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour government in Westminster.

Mr Diffley said: “In my view, Reform is primarily taking votes from disaffected Labour and Conservative voters. This fractured vote is allowing the SNP to come through the middle with a reduced vote share.”

The most recent poll by Ipsos projects the SNP will win 60 seats at the election on May 7. This is short of the 65-seat majority Mr Swinney has his eyes set on, but puts them comfortably ahead of all the other parties.

The poll put Scottish Labour on 20 seats, followed by the Greens on 16, Reform on 13 and the Conservatives and Lib Dems on 10 each.

However, only days before this poll was published the first MRP poll for this election by Stonehaven suggested the SNP would win a historic landslide with 67 seats thanks to tactical voting.

This poll, like many over the last few months, predicted Reform will come second with 25 seats, pushing Labour into third with 15, followed by the Lib Dems on eight and the Conservatives and the Greens on seven each.

This is despite the party being hit with numerous setbacks since the last election.

They have gone through no less than three first ministers. Operation Branchform saw former first minister Nicola Sturgeon arrested, and her estranged husband Peter Murrell, the SNP’s former chief executive, charged with embezzlement. Scandals such as the deaths at the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital are still bubbling away, and several pieces of legislation have failed to get off the ground.

However, within the party itself Mr Swinney has certainly brought stability. His favourability ratings are nowhere near the dizzying heights of Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon in their heydays, but he is largely seen as more competent and less chaotic than Humza Yousaf.

“He redirected the government’s focus and be that the NHS or the cost-of-living crisis, the results are steadily getting there,” a party insider told The Scotsman.

“But one thing people understand about the SNP is they put Scotland first and, despite what Labour are praying, folk trust Swinney’s leadership and they trust he is working in Scotland’s best interests.”

They added: “In a world that is throwing up chaos, there is something compelling about a man who has dedicated his life to the service of Scotland.

“He’s never going to headline Glastonbury, but he has something people like Anas Sarwar will never capture and it’s genuine, trusted leadership in Scotland’s best interests.

“Marry all that to a massage of hope through independence, then you have a strong offer - John Swinney’s leadership of the SNP may be understated, but right now that may be just what Scotland wants.”

It is not just the face at the top that has changed since 2021. Despite winning 64 seats, there are now only 60 SNP MSPs in the Scottish Parliament.

This includes Fergus Ewing MSP, who has been one of the fiercest critics of the nationalists in the last few years.

The once rebel SNP backbencher has shunned his former party and now sits in the ‘naughty seats’ at the back of Holyrood’s debating chamber as an independent.

The SNP has suffered because of serious errors of judgement, mainly the damaging deal with the Greens,” said the Inverness and Nairn MSP.

“Its architect, the now First Minister, may have steadied the ship but he is still navigating directly to the twin icebergs of a giant fiscal black hole he ignores and again bringing the Greens back into government after the election - despite it being the cause of huge damage, cost and expense which is still being felt today.”

He added: “I believe the polls overstate the number of MSPs the SNP is likely to win because of seats where serious levels of tactical voting takes place - as indeed has been evident from some local by-election results.”

The campaign conference takes place in Edinburgh and the opening speech will be given by Stephen Flynn MP, a well known face who is trusted by the party to perform in front of the cameras and connect with the general public.

He is amongst the most well-known of the SNP candidates at this election - he is hoping to make the jump from Westminster to Holyrood by becoming the new MSP for Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine.

Some of the topics up for discussion on Saturday include the introduction of walk-in GP clinics, preparing for independence, and refugee integration.

The conference will close with an address by Mr Swinney himself, where he will rally the troops to go out and fight to make sure he keeps the keys to Bute House firmly in his back pocket.