How Sir Keir Starmer could be ousted as Prime Minister - leadership challenge, rivals, Scotland impact
There are repeated rumours of a potential leadership challenge - but where does that leave Scottish Labour?
Sir Keir Starmer is facing yet another plot to oust him as Labour leader, just months out from the Scottish Parliament election in May.
Those who have been tipped to try and challenge the Prime Minister are keen to play down any suggestions of an internal coup. But it does not change Sir Keir’s poor polling in Scotland or the continual talk of a leadership challenge only 18 months into his premiership.
Here, The Scotsman takes a look at what is happening and what it could all mean for Scottish Labour at the Holyrood election.
Why is there talk of a leadership challenge?
Ever since taking office in July last year, Sir Keir’s popularity has plummeted in the polls.
Polls from September suggest the Prime Minister is now more unpopular in Scotland than US president Donald Trump - and in turn is also bringing down Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s favourability.
The party has also dipped in the polls since the general election, where Scottish Labour was neck-and-neck with the SNP for Holyrood. The party has now plummeted back to its 2021 levels and there have been two separate polls suggesting they will finish third behind the Nationalists and Reform UK.
Labour is similarly projected to perform poorly at the Welsh Senedd elections and recently lost the Caerphilly by-election - a seat the party had held for over a century.
This week friends of Sir Keir told several news outlets that his job might be under immediate threat.
Who could replace him?
The big name being mentioned at the moment is Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
He is seen as dependable and trusted in front of the media. Mr Streeting is often present at government events - for example when Scottish journalists visited the Prime Minister in 10 Downing Street last month, Mr Streeting was also in attendance.
However, 12 hours later Mr Streeting said any suggestions he is seeking to challenge Sir Keir for leadership are “self-defeating nonsense” and that he could “not see any circumstances under which I would do that to our Prime Minister”.
Other names mentioned include Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, deputy leader Lucy Powell and former transport secretary Louise Haigh.
Earlier in the year, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was touted as a potential challenger. However, as he is not a sitting MP, there is no clear path for Mr Burnham to make an official challenge.
What would a leadership challenge look like?
Unlike other political parties, Labour MPs cannot formally hold a vote of confidence in their party leader. However, MPs can initiate leadership challenges each year before the annual session of party conference.
Any potential challenger must be an MP and then be backed by 20 per cent of their fellow MPs. As there are 405 Labour MPs in Westminster, they would need 81 supporters.
The challenger must also be nominated by 5 per cent of constituency parties.
Party members and affiliates then vote using the preferential voting system, similar to what is used in local council elections. The winner is the first candidate to secure over 50 per cent of the vote.
If enough support is gathered to start a ballot, the incumbent leader, in this case Sir Keir, is automatically added to the ballot paper and does not need to seek nominations.
What does this mean for Scottish Labour?
“Anas Sarwar must see Keir Starmer’s face as he weeps to sleep at night,” said Allan Faulds, from Ballot Box Scotland.
Mr Faulds has claimed time has already run out to turn around Scottish Labour’s dwindling fortunes at the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.
Speaking to The Scotsman, he said: “It is clear Anas Sarwar is not going to get to Bute House and there is a clear sense in Scottish Labour that Keir Starmer’s underperformance is to blame for their issues.
“It does strike very similar to the end of the Boris Johnson period where you could replace Keir Starmer with whoever, but it is not going to turn around the election.”
Mr Faulds suggests the party would wait until after the Scottish and Welsh elections in May to hold a leadership contest.
“They will feel better placed to wait until May to overthrow the Prime Minister rather than having a new Prime Minister immediately facing losses in Scotland and Wales,” he said.
“But if you asked me 18 months ago if John Swinney would still be on track to be First Minister, I would have laughed. But now that is the most realistic prospect.
“So it is looking pretty grim for Scottish Labour, but never say never.”
What are the trade unions saying?
The trade unions are unimpressed with the whole situation - they say it is distracting from the real needs of voters.
A spokesman for the STUC said: “Labour politicians need to get a grip and focus on the needs of voters.
“Instead of fighting with each other, the Labour UK Government in their crucial upcoming budget should be fighting for workers via wealth taxes, investment in our public services and redistributing resources across our society.
“That’s the real change our communities are demanding, not intraparty squabbling.”
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