How much trouble is Angela Constance in and how likely is it she will be forced out?

The Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour have banded together on this issue, claiming Angela Constance misled parliament over comments she made about child abuse expert Professor Alexis Jay.

So far the Scottish Government has refused to concede to these calls - but has also kept Ms Constance out of the way as much as possible.

On September 16, the Scottish Conservatives tried to put forward an amendment to the government’s Victims, Witnesses, and Justice Reform (Scotland) Bill which would have opened a grooming gangs inquiry in Scotland.

At the time, Ms Constance said she was opposed to this, and argued that Professor Jay, who led the grooming gangs inquiry in England and Wales, also did not want any more inquiries.

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However, a clarification was then quietly made in the minutes of a strategy group looking into child sex abuse which stated this was Professor Hay’s views on England and Wales, not necessarily Scotland.

On Wednesday the Scottish Government published its email exchanges with Professor Jay, showing the professor conceding that Ms Constance did not misquote her, but that the comments could be interpreted as her not supporting any further evidence gathering.

Professor Jay said: “I am of the opinion that the Scottish Government should urgently take steps to establish reliable data about the nature and extent of child sexual exploitation by organised networks, of which so-called grooming gangs is only one component.”

She also said: “It had nothing to do with [the Conservatives’] amendment, or the position in Scotland, as could be interpreted from your statement.”

Former Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has called on the First Minister to sack Ms Constance from his frontbench team. Scottish Labour has made similar calls.

Taylor, an alleged grooming gangs victim who met with Mr Swinney earlier this week, also believes Ms Constance should be sacked.

This could happen if it is found Ms Constance breached the ministerial code of conduct.

The code states “it is of paramount importance that ministers give accurate and truthful information to the parliament, correcting any inadvertent error at the earliest opportunity”.

It adds: “Ministers who knowingly mislead the parliament will be expected to offer their resignation to the First Minister.”

Mr Ross believes Ms Constance has misled parliament with her comments.

He said: “He’s going to lose his justice secretary. Angela Constance is either going to have to resign or be sacked for misleading parliament.

“In black and white it is clear that the justice secretary did not tell the truth to this chamber. In black and white it is clear that Professor Alexis Jay wanted that correction to be made.”

He said this is now a “test of [Mr Swinney’s] leadership”.

So far Ms Constance has not appeared to speak in debates about this matter. Either Children’s Minister Natalie Don-Innes or Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth have been put up by the government to speak in her place instead.

Mr Swinney faces first minister’s questions at midday on Thursday where he is likely to be questioned on Ms Constance’s position, something opposition parties have called “untenable”.

Given how close it is until the Scottish Parliament election in May, and given how well the SNP are doing in the polls, Mr Swinney will not want a cabinet reshuffle at this time - and the same time he will not want a scandal denting this lead.