Exclusive:Holyrood election: Anas Sarwar's slim hopes for a tactical route to Bute House
Labour is trailing far behind the SNP in the polls but hopes to flip seats in key Central Belt battlegrounds
Labour believes it has identified a route to forming the next Scottish government by flipping a dozen constituencies from the SNP and relying on a strong Reform performance on the regional list to deprive John Swinney’s party of the keys to Bute House.
Anas Sarwar’s team believe that in battlegrounds across the Central Belt, where constituencies can be framed as a straight fight between Labour and the SNP, turning 11 or 12 seats red would create three large party blocks, with an assumption Labour would be the only party able to form a government with the help of Reform.
The claim is they would have a “moral mandate” to govern, but in order to stand a chance of forming the next government, Labour needs the polls to tighten dramatically to around four or five points. Currently, Labour trails the SNP by around 18 points - meaning Mr Sarwar’s campaign will need to bring forward something extraordinary to move the dial on public opinion in the coming weeks.
Labour’s potential route to Bute House would rely on unionist parties, including Reform, to vote in Mr Sarwar as first minister following May’s election, with Labour attempting to govern as a small minority administration.
It comes after SNP leader John Swinney warned that if his party falls short of a majority, Labour and Reform could tie up a “grubby backroom deal” to oust his party from power.
A senior Scottish Labour source told The Scotsman that ultimately, the election will be decided in 30 or 40 constituencies in the Central Belt of Scotland”.
Mr Sarwar and key Labour campaigners are poised to visit all of Scotland’s eight electoral regions and around 40 constituencies in the coming days and weeks.
The senior source added that despite the dismal polling, “there is still a route to us winning this election”.
They added: “The uneven distribution of voters across the country means we can actually trail the SNP by about five points and win in those Central Belt constituencies.
“We disproportionately have our voters in those seats. The SNP’s voters are across the whole of Scotland.”
READ MORE: SNP accuses Labour of lacking policy ideas and identity as Anas Sarwar poised to set out divergences
The insider argued that many Central Belt seats will “be run close between us and the SNP”, adding that “there is a lot to play for”.
“The list makes it really hard for whoever loses constituency seats”, the source added.
“The Scottish electoral system is really punishing, and it cuts both ways.”
One potential scenario, seen by The Scotsman, forecasts that if Labour can take four of the six Glasgow constituencies, the SNP would not be fully supplemented for the losses on the regional list due to the strength of the anticipated Reform vote.
The scenario suggests that instead of the SNP picking up three regional list seats for Glasgow, Reform would come first as the highest performing party that has not won a constituency, with it likely four seats would then be split evenly between Labour and the SNP - with Reform picking up a second regional MSP.
2021 Scottish Parliament election result
“If there are two parties going head to head in constituency seats and one ekes ahead of them just a little bit, the other one can get absolutely annihilated on the list”, the source suggested.
“This means you could see the SNP losing around 11 constituencies for us to be basically neck and neck because of the consequent loss on the list. That’s because Reform will take the seats on the list.
“So this could end up, on not a huge amount of seats changing hands, it could completely tip the balance into a situation where you are looking at three party blocks.”
In the scenario of three strong blocks of Labour, the SNP and Reform, Labour is banking on unionist parties to put Mr Sarwar into Bute House instead of Mr Swinney.
“We would have the moral mandate having come from third, even if we are marginally behind the SNP as the biggest party”, the source claimed.
Scottish Labour deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, told The Scotsman that “in constituencies all over Scotland it is a straight fight between Scottish Labour and the SNP”.
She added: “Only Scottish Labour can beat the SNP in key seats in the Central Belt and beyond and only Anas Sarwar can replace John Swinney as First Minister.”
But Mark Diffley, founder and director of Diffley Partnership, has warned that current polling made the prospect of Labour challenging the SNP in constituencies across the Central Belt highly unlikely.
He said: “Yes, it is true that if Labour get to within four or five percentage points of the SNP, they have a decent chance of being the largest party.
“But, at this point, they are actually about 18 points behind the SNP. There is little sign of that gap closing, as the polls stand.”
Mr Diffley said that Labour’s strategy of turning Central Belt battles into a contest between them and the SNP “relies on everyone in the constituency knowing it’s a straight fight or believing that it’s a straight fight between Labour and the SNP”.
He added: “Assuming they do, it motivates Green voters to vote for the SNP as much as it motivates some unionists to vote for Labour.
“It might have a marginal impact in Labour’s favour but it doesn’t look like it will do enough.”
Labour’s share of the vote in some constituencies across the Central Belt might also be impacted by the strong support for Reform.
But Mr Diffley has warned that the chaotic few days Reform has endured might not curtail the party’s support with voters.
“Not necessarily in a Scottish context, but Reform has been beset by candidate scandals and leadership gaffes on a fairly regular basis since the outset”, Mr Diffley said.
“It doesn’t really touch the sides, because their voters brush this stuff off. It doesn’t really register with them.
“They are the ones who want things to be different more than anyone else. That is what draws people to them is this anti-establishment ticket.”
SNP Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, told The Scotsman that “from Labour’s perspective, we’ve heard it all before”.
He added: “All they’ve had is absolute chaos coming out of Westminster.
“The Labour party made a promise to deliver change and they’ve failed. People are not going to fall for it again.
“If they want strong, serious leadership in a very uncertain world, the best person to vote for to be first minister is John Swinney.”
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