Four in ten Reform voters prefer Swinney as first minister over Sarwar
A survey by Survation for the Diffley Partnership found the SNP leader outperforms his rivals
Four in ten Reform voters in Scotland would prefer John Swinney as first minister over Anas Sarwar, new polling shows.
A survey by Survation for the Diffley Partnership found the SNP leader outperforms his main rivals for the top job.
It found 80 per cent of Labour voters would pick Mr Swinney over Malcolm Offord, the leader of Reform in Scotland.
“In other words, constitutional loyalties here go out the window,” pollster Mark Diffley told an event in Edinburgh.
The survey of 1,068 people carried out between March 16 and 23 found the SNP on course to win 62 seats in May’s Scottish Parliament election, with Reform UK narrowly in second place over Labour.
The SNP is on 35 per cent of the Holyrood constituency vote and 32 per cent of the regional list, leaving the party just three seats short of the majority.
Reform UK would receive 19 per cent of the constituency vote and 18 per cent of the list, projecting a 19-seat return.
Labour followed closely behind in the survey, with 19 per cent of respondents backing the party in constituencies and 17 per cent in regional votes, equalling 18 Holyrood seats.
The Tories are on 13 seats, with 11 per cent of the constituency vote and 13 per cent of the list vote, with the Scottish Greens on 10 seats and the Lib Dems on seven.
Mr Swinney continues to be the least unpopular political leader in Scotland, with a net favourability rating of minus 10 per cent, compared with minus 47 per cent for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and minus 25 per cent for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has a minus 31 per cent rating in Scotland, compared with minus 15 per cent for his Scottish leader Lord Offord, although 55 per cent of respondents said they had no opinion of Lord Offord.
The survey found that since February, the number of people who answered “don’t know” when asked about political leaders has dwindled, which Diffley Partnership founder Mark Diffley said indicates an increased interest in the election.
The poll put forward hypothetical scenarios where only two party leaders could become first minister, and asked respondents to pick one in a head-to-head. Mr Swinney outperformed both Mr Sarwar and Lord Offord.
A total of 55 per cent of respondents backed the SNP leader over Mr Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, while 65 per cent preferred him to Lord Offord. In a head-to-head between Mr Sarwar and Lord Offord, 58 per cent chose the former.
Four in ten Reform voters chose Mr Swinney over Mr Sarwar.
Mr Diffley said: “As the campaign now gets properly under way, this poll suggests that the SNP remain in a strong position, set to return as the largest party in May, but still falling short of a majority.”
“Support for the other parties is broadly dispersed, which means relatively small movements during the campaign could have a meaningful impact on the final seat picture.
“Beyond the headline voting numbers, the survey also shows voters beginning to pay closer attention to the people who want to lead Scotland.
“Since February, we’ve seen a clear drop in the proportion of voters who say they ‘don’t know’ their view of each party leader, indicating that engagement is increasing as the election draws nearer.
“At the same time, favourability has softened for almost every leader. This suggests that as voters tune in to the campaign, they are assessing leaders more critically.
“Taken together, the findings point to a campaign that is now in motion, with voters paying closer attention but also becoming more demanding of those seeking office.
“With several weeks still to go, there remains scope for both voting intention and leader perceptions to shift further.”
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