Analysis

Why Andy Burnham as PM would not be a silver bullet to take away Scottish Labour's troubles

Scottish Labour would welcome a UK Labour government led by Andy Burnham, but it will not end the party’s struggles at Holyrood

Andy Burnham replacing Keir Starmer in Downing Street would potentially give a timid Scottish Labour party a much-needed boost - but there will be no scapegoats left to blame the party’s troubles on.

There is still some way to go before Mr Burnham replaces Sir Keir as Prime Minister, but to many inside and outside the Labour movement, it now feels inevitable. For many within Scottish Labour, it would be a welcome move, but it will not be a silver bullet to take away the party’s many significant problems.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham placeholder image
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham | (Photo: John Devlin).

Anas Sarwar, who has so far avoided questions over his own leadership, having led Scottish Labour into defeat at a Holyrood election for the second time, will want to see Mr Burnham in power.

Mr Sarwar and Mr Burnham are close - but then so were the Scottish Labour leader and Sir Keir, before his botched attempt to remove the PM from Downing Street in February.

Those close to Mr Sarwar have tried to shift the blame from a pretty lousy election campaign on to Sir Keir’s unpopularity. Although the UK government played a big part in Mr Sarwar’s Bute House ambitions falling flat, Scottish Labour’s campaign did very little to inspire voters.

What a Burnham government will look like largely remains a mystery. How Mr Burnham’s leadership would look and, crucially, what it would mean for Scottish Labour are yet to be seen.

Mr Burnham has said he is “open-minded” about North Sea drilling. Unsurprisingly, Mr Burnham staunchly opposes Scottish independence but has previously called for “as close as you can get to home rule for Scotland” as part of his vision for greater devolution across the UK. But on the detail, we remain in the dark.

If Mr Burnham does become prime minister, two immediate problems would remain for Mr Sarwar, assuming he doesn’t pack it all in in the coming weeks and months.

Firstly, Mr Burnham will have a daunting list of thing he needs to try to put right, with no extra money unless he bins a Labour manifesto vow not to raise taxes. Helping out Mr Sarwar and Scottish Labour will in no way be top of the pile.

Secondly, if Mr Burnham does enter government, Scottish Labour’s excuses for failure will be gone. There will be nowhere to hide for Mr Sarwar and whoever takes on the leadership after him. It will all be down to what vision for Scotland Labour’s MSPs can plot.

Scottish Labour’s message during the Holyrood election was that the SNP have come up with some good ideas but have failed to implement them, arguing that wearing a red rosette would mean progress on shared issues would be achieved.

If Mr Burnham does front up the UK government, the Scottish Labour leadership will need some of their own ideas if they are to have any cut-through with the public.

If Scottish Labour continue down the cautious path they have been on under Mr Sarwar, particularly on the constitution, a Burnham government will not rejuvenate the party in a way it desperately needs.

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