Labour's downfall cannot mask unionists' failure to oust SNP as Reform and Greens charge forward
Scotland’s unionist parties appear unable to remove the SNP from power without calling their bluff on an independence referendum.
When Anas Sarwar marched into the Emirates Arena, after just seven seats had been declared, the Scottish Labour leader already knew he was trudging into a nightmare he’d probably been having for months.
Almost two years ago, Mr Sarwar waltzed into the same venue to declare a historic victory for Labour in the UK general election. But now he was admitting defeat before the full scale of just how bad an election this had been for Labour was evident.
Mr Sarwar made clear that he had tried, and failed, to make the election about the SNP’s record and devolved issues. Brutally, he admitted that the Scottish public had simply not been listening.
To make matters even more awkward, Mr Sarwar, at least for now, is insisting he will remain Scottish Labour’s leader. That seems a position that will not stick.
Although John Swinney has fallen short of his ultimate goal of securing an elusive majority, a task that felt almost impossible with a lower vote share than enjoyed under Nicola Sturgeon’s time in power, it is difficult to see this result of anything other than a comfortable victory for the SNP.
Despite Mr Swinney failing short of his ultimate aim, he has secured a historic fifth term for the SNP - leading his party into a third decade of power.
For Mr Swinney, despite being a key player in the SNP movement for more than a decade, this is a personal achievement unlike any he has managed. Having fallen short in his previous stint as SNP leader and having been forced to lead the party into defeat at the 2024 general election, this victory will not feel hollow to Mr Swinney one bit.
Questions will flood the SNP leader over what this means for his independence strategy that allegedly hinged on a majority forcing the UK government to take its fingers out of its ears and finally listen to demands for a re-run of the 2014 referendum.
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But for unionist parties, who have collectively failed to defeat the SNP once again, it appears they will not be able to oust the SNP from office until they finally call their bluff on an independent referendum.
Without being willing to hold their nerves and do so, unionist parties seem destined for opposition.
In some parts of Scotland, it is clear that Reform’s vote has not held up at the heights some polls were predicting, but their result is some achievement.
Again, it is difficult to conclude the party has not had an incredibly good night, given they have flung themselves into the Scottish Parliament from a standing start with apparent little planning.
Thomas Kerr hailed the election result as a “stepping stone” for Reform’s foray into Scottish politics. His insistence that support for the party will simply continue to grow, is yet to be seen.
We are still unclear what Reform really stands for on devolved issues and whether they can stick out the seriousness and detail that is required of an opposition party at Holyrood.
For the Greens, they have clearly had a historic election, ironically helped by Reform.
Nigel Farage’s party put the bullseye on the Greens with their bone idle threats over detention centres in Green-voting constituencies.
This only appears to have placed the Greens as an obvious anti-Reform vote - and the significance of being able to win two flagship constituencies, and remove two high-profile SNP ministers in the process, cannot be underplayed.
There will be plenty of new faces in the next parliament, and despite us not knowing what Reform will bring to Holyrood, what is clear that Labour have gone back to the bad old days and we are poised for yet more pro-independence dominance.
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