Anas Sarwar losing Holyrood election could spark Labour rebellion to oust Keir Starmer
Labour MPs are reportedly giving Keir Starmer 12 months to turn things around - with the outcome of next year’s Holyrood election a potential trigger to oust him from office.
Labour has been accused of using Scotland as “a pawn in their political games” amid speculation a failed attempt by Anas Sarwar to to win next year's Holyrood election could spark a backbench rebellion to oust Keir Starmer.
Less than one year into Sir Keir’s landslide victory to become Prime Minister, speculation is mounting that frustrated backbench Labour MPs are giving him 12 months to revive his party’s chances in the polls before mounting a bid to remove him from office.
Reports suggest that Labour falling short of replacing the SNP at Holyrood next year and losing power in Wales could be a trigger for backbenchers to find a way to turf the Prime Minister from office.
The speculation comes as a Labour MSP told The Scotsman that there is a growing “frustration” within the Holyrood group of politicians that Scottish Labour MPs elected last year are not speaking out against a series of unpopular policies from Chancellor Rachel Reeves that are poised to wreck Mr Sarwar’s chances of removing the SNP from power.
The Labour MSP told The Scotsman that Mr Sarwar’s team needed to “start showing people that we can give them a bit of hope for next year”.
Concern Scottish Labour MPs are keeping silent
They added: “I think there is frustration that we've got a big group of Labour MPs, they may be new to parliament but they're not new to politics or the party - there's a lot of people who have been advisers or had party roles, but they are not pushing back maybe as explicitly as we would have hoped.
“Maybe Anas feels like he's not got his MPs at his back. People are starting to feel sorry for him, which is never good for a leader.
“What does come up on the doorstep is people saying the SNP stands up for Scotland. That's a perception we still need to address.”
The MSP added that there was a need for Mr Sarwar’s team to set out “where does Labour add value” and “where do we differ” from the SNP.
The panic in the polls has led Sir Keir to confirm he is poised to reverse his government’s controversial winter fuel cuts, a policy Scottish Labour has been attacked repeatedly over by the SNP.
Labour to axe benefit cap
Reports also suggest that the Prime Minister is set to cave to more pressure and finally agree to axe the controversial two-child benefit cap - a move the SNP has repeatedly demanded. In December’s Scottish Budget, SNP ministers brought forward a pledge to mitigate the benefit cap themselves, politically wrongfooting Labour.
READ MORE: Anas Sarwar admits UK Labour denting Scottish election chances - but insists he can win in 2026
According to the Independent, Labour MPs are growing frustrated at the Prime Minister's apparent pandering to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK - with a full-throated pitch to cut immigration and use the issue as a scapegoat for heaping pressure on public services seen as the final straw for many.
One Scottish Labour source told the Independent that “trying to sound like Reform will never work”.
They added: “It was like trying to out-Nat the Nats on Scottish issues – you can’t out-Farage Farage on things like migration. You need your own narrative.”
As well as shedding votes to Reform, analysis suggests Labour is also losing voters to the Lib Dems and the Greens, believed to be a consequence of trying to appeal to Reform voters.
According to YouGov analysis, 13 per cent of 2024 Labour voters across the UK have switched to the Lib Dems, while 41 per cent are open to switching and almost a third are open to switching to the Greens.
Labour figures have suggested that next May “is being circled” as “a point to make a decision on the Prime Minister”.
Rayner denies bid to replace Starmer
Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner was forced to deny she is teeing up a future leadership bid after a memo she sent to the Chancellor suggesting tax rises was leaked to the press.
Ms Rayner suggested reinstating the pensions lifetime allowance and changing dividend taxes in a memo to the Chancellor with ideas to raise revenue, according to the Telegraph.
The Deputy Prime Minister said she was “absolutely not” behind a leaked memo, and ruled out becoming Prime Minister in the future.
Speaking to the BBC, she said: “I do not leak. I think leaks are very damaging. I’m 100 per cent behind our Cabinet and the decisions that we make collectively.
The Deputy PM also claimed there was no “significantly different opinion across government”.
She added: “The Government has discussions. We do that in private. So I’m not going to comment on any memos or documents that have been circulated, but I can tell you that the Government is absolutely 100 per cent behind our Chancellor, and as a Cabinet we make the collective decisions.”
It is understood that if Labour endures a disastrous Holyrood election next year, as polls currently predict, alongside losing power in the Welsh Senedd and another set of woeful English local elections, Sir Keir will likely face a leadership challenge.
The Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse Holyrood by-election, taking place on June 5, had initially been seen as an opportunity for Labour to kickstart the party’s Bute House bid next year.
By-election could spark disaster for Labour
But with speculation Labour could now finish behind Reform in third place and criticism over a refusal from candidate Davy Russell to take part in a live TV debate, Mr Sarwar’s party has surrendered momentum.
One source told the Independent that “the nightmare scenario is that we don’t only lose control of Wales for the first time but come third to Reform and Plaid Cymru, and we come third in Scotland to the SNP and Reform”.
SNP MSP, Rona Mackay, said that the suggestion was “yet another example of Labour treating Scotland as an afterthought and using our nation as a pawn in their political games”.
She added: “Scotland deserves a government that puts its interests first and delivers real, lasting change.
“The SNP are on Scotland’s side, and we will continue to stand up for the people of Scotland and work everyday to build a fairer, more prosperous future.”
Scottish Labour was contacted for comment.
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