Whoever is next prime minister should beware fleeting popularity
Sir Keir Starmer’s successor must address an electorate that appears disillusioned with its political leaders
Labour’s landslide victory in the last general election was less than two years ago but feels far more distant than that.
In the summer of 2024, Sir Keir Starmer was riding high on the back of a remarkable result that saw his party win 411 seats, up from 209 in 2019. The Conservatives, in contrast, won just 121, down from 244, while the SNP went from 48 to nine MPs.
At the time there was much talk about a welcome return to more stable political times following the turmoil that accompanied the premierships of Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak.
But in reality, the scale of Sir Keir’s landslide was deceptive. On a low turnout, just one third of voters backed him becoming Prime Minister.
For many of the electorate in the last general election, a vote for Labour was less a ringing endorsement of Sir Keir than a means of changing the party of government after 14 years of Conservative rule.
With his authority undermined and Cabinet colleagues restive, it seems only a matter of time before the Prime Minister takes the decision to set out a timetable for his departure from Downing Street.
Doing so would open the door to a leadership contest that newly-elected Makerfield MP Andy Burnham would be expected to win, given his broad support within the Labour Party rank and file.
What is less clear is whether a change in Labour leader and prime minister would lead to more stable political times ahead.
The message from the electorate to political leaders over the past decade is that they lack any great enthusiasm for any of them.
Mr Burnham, or whoever else succeeds Sir Keir, may well enjoy a bounce in the polls on taking over from an unpopular predecessor.
But, if the succession of short-lived premierships in recent years is anything to go by, such popularity is likely to be only fleeting.
The real challenge for the next prime minister will be to pull together a country that has become increasingly disillusioned with those tasked with governing them.