Why Tories who defected to Reform UK are starting to regret it – Murdo Fraser

In recent years, conferences have moved away from being simply gatherings of enthusiastic footsoldiers, eager to rub shoulders with party bigwigs, or even hold impassioned debates and votes on matters of policy. They are now dominated by media and corporate interests, and any internal dissent is firmly closed down as party managers aim to present a united front and generate as many positive headlines as they can.

From being a fringe outfit in British politics for many years, Reform UK were determined to step into the big league with this year’s conference, and reports from Birmingham indicated that it was on a scale that we have only in the past seen from the Conservatives and Labour.

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Reform aides quit after sting

But Reform’s hope that this conference would be a staging post to success at a future general election was blown apart by Channel 4 News’ highly successful sting operation, which ran on TV just as the conference was launching.

Nigel Farage’s close aides Dan Jukes and James Orr were caught on camera appearing to encourage what would have been unlawful donations to the party from a US citizen. Farage himself was even filmed meeting the supposed donors.

Both Jukes and Orr swiftly left their positions pending an investigation and were not to be seen around the conference in Birmingham. Farage then had to spend the rest of the week firefighting, and denied any illegality on the part of his party. When asked about his own part in the conversation with the purported donors, his response was that he was not even listening to what was being said.

Despite the attempts to make Reform appear a more professional outfit, all this just adds to the sense that it is not a party fit to be in government. The latest scandal is on the back of numerous stories about individuals in Reform, as candidates or activists, who have a history of extreme and offensive positions.

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One Nation Conservative in Shadow Cabinet

It all contrasts sharply with the progress that the Kemi Badenoch has been making in turning around Conservative fortunes. Last week’s Shadow Cabinet reshuffle brought in a number of new faces, reinforcing the impression that Badenoch’s Tories are very different from what went before in 14 years of government.

From my own perspective, there were two particularly welcome appointments. Firstly, the very talented Tom Tugendhat was promoted to the position of Shadow Foreign Secretary, a post for which he was made as an experienced and talented operator in the field of international affairs. Given his standing as a One Nation Conservative, this gives the lie to those who claim that Badenoch is only interested in shifting the party towards the right.

The other very welcome appointment was that of my Scottish Conservative colleague Harriet Cross MP to the role of Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland. An MP for only two years, Harriet has been impressive in her Commons performances and is equally assured as a communicator in the media. Her appointment to the Shadow Cabinet now means that there are two Scottish MPs at the party’s top table for the first time since John Major’s government nearly three decades ago.

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The public are starting to notice and approve of Badenoch’s leadership. Her personal ratings are strong, and well ahead of Farage. Importantly, there have been two national polls in the last week showing that the Conservatives have overtaken Reform, who have slipped back into third place with the Burnham bounce seeing a small Labour lead overall.

These may be straws in the wind, but they are indicative of a direction of travel in public opinion. It would be too early to say that the Reform bubble has burst, but it is certainly slowly deflating.

Opportunistic Tories like Jenrick

The whole Farage strategy was always to replace the Conservatives as the party of the Right across the UK, and therefore to be able to present Reform as the only credible challengers to Labour at the next general election. With our first-past-the-post voting system, that meant that voters who wanted to see a change of government would naturally gravitate towards Reform candidates in preference to third-placed Conservatives, making a Reform Commons majority much more likely.

This strategy was aided and abetted by opportunistic Tories like Robert Jenrick, who thought they could see a career opportunity opening up in an insurgent right-wing party that would inevitably replace the Conservatives, who then would become a little like the Liberal Democrats in being able to win constituencies in specific geographical areas, but cease to be a credible national force.

The latest polling, coupled with Reform’s ongoing woes, suggest that this cunning plan is failing. If Badenoch’s Conservatives can continue to grow in support, we firmly establish ourselves as the only credible alternative to Labour. And then those voters who want to see a change in government will realise that it is a vote for Reform that splits the right and ensures Labour continue in power.

Already those opportunists who jumped too quickly from the Tories to Reform will be having second thoughts. Reform ascendancy is not only no longer assured, but it also looks much less likely than it did even six months ago.

The chaos of the Reform conference has handed Badenoch a golden opportunity for the Conservatives. The evidence so far suggests that she is well able to capitalise on it.

Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife