Why the Tories are dying and the Lib Dems must urgently stop being such a joke

Before last year’s general election, UK party leader Ed Davey tried his hand at hula-hooping in Edinburgh; ‘comically’ fell off a paddleboard into Lake Windermere; rode a hobby horse over hurdles in Henley-on-Thames; competed in a wheelbarrow race at Yeovil Town FC; fell off an assault course over another lake in Stratford-upon-Avon; and had a go on the 'Tidal Wave' ride at Thorpe Park.

Of course, everyone knows these ‘madcap’ antics are political stunts designed to attract attention and Davey may not be quite the clown he is playing in his am-dram way. National publicity achieved, the hard yards towards election victories are mostly done on local issues.

However, while this may have been an astute strategy for a small party caught between two political behemoths, it is failing in today’s radically different political environment.

Tories pursuing losing strategy

The utter disintegration of the Conservatives and the haemorrhaging of support experienced by Labour since their election victory has created a major opportunity for the Lib Dems but one they show few signs of being able to exploit.

According to Politico’s ‘poll of polls’, in September last year, Labour was supported by 33 per cent of voters and the Tories by 21, with Reform UK on 19 and the Liberal Democrats on 12. Since then, Labour has slumped to 20 per cent and the Tories have slipped further to 16, with Reform soaring up to 31.

The Conservatives’ response to this disastrous decline has been to sing increasingly loudly from Reform’s unholy hymn sheet in the mistaken and bizarre belief that doubling down on this long-standing losing strategy will magically transform it into a winning one.

Instead, the contrast between record levels of immigration while they were in office – mostly for understandable reasons – and their hostile rhetoric on the subject has turned the party into a recruiting sergeant for Reform. And as well as driving voters into the hands of Nigel Farage, they are also putting off liberal Conservatives as the resignations of Scottish Tory MSPs Jeremy Balfour and Jamie Greene, who switched to the Liberal Democrats, demonstrate.

Rory Stewart a ‘natural ally’

However, Greene may be feeling rather lonely in his new party as few other Tories have made the same decision. Over the past year, the Lib Dems’ support in UK polls has only risen by two percentage points.

For whatever reason, disenchanted ‘One Nation’ Tories are avoiding what appears to be their most obvious new home. Some will be clinging to the Conservatives out of sentiment for the party they have always supported or in the hope that it will come to its senses, while others may have long looked upon the Lib Dems with such contempt that they simply cannot face joining their ranks.

Part of the problem is that they do not take the party seriously, particularly on big issues. Former Conservative Cabinet minister Rory Stewart recently said recently on his podcast with Alastair Campbell, The Rest is Politics, that Liberal Democrats he had spoken to complained they were ignored by the media when they spoke about major national and international issues.

“Often what I hear them saying is... there’s no point really because nobody is going to cover us anyway. I think these people are being very, very defeatist. I think there is a massive space in the centre ground for a charismatic communicator who is significantly articulate,” Stewart said.

“Look, I’m a natural ally of theirs. and maybe that’s why I’m being so chippy about this... but I don’t feel this is a team trying to bring in talent, trying to reach out to other people in the centre, laying out bold international policy positions... I don’t think they should give up.”

Prime Minister Farage

Whether or not Stewart was making a plea to the Lib Dems to make him an offer, it seems obvious the party should be doing far more to appeal to people who share his kind of political views. This would obviously require left-leaning Lib Dems to put aside their differences with people on the centre right and make common cause with former opponents.

There is a pressing need to do this because, if the Labour government keeps losing support and Reform keeps gaining it, Nigel Farage will be the UK’s next Prime Minister, perhaps in coalition with the Tories.

Reform has been getting a lot of media coverage, but that’s largely because they are the coming force in UK politics. In order to stop being ignored, the Liberal Democrats need to come out fighting and rally people to the cause of liberalism, which has helped build everything good about the UK since the end of the Second World War.

Pro-business and pro-science

There is a strong story to tell. In contrast to Reform’s talk of ‘net zero’ migration – which could well be an act of national self-harm on a par with Brexit – they should make a pro-business case for ‘common sense’ migration.

Unlike Reform’s dismissal of action on climate change as “net stupid zero”, they should defend the science, make the case for doing our bit to prevent global warming getting out of hand, and emphasise the need to modernise our economy.

Despite Reform’s rise dominating the headlines and persuading the Conservatives and Labour to dance to their tune, I am convinced most people are still liberal in their outlook. But as Keir Starmer continues to struggle, the UK faces a future under its most illiberal government in living memory, elected by a minority of voters.

It’s time for liberals to get serious and unite to see off what is a very real and growing threat.