Why the danger of a Russian attack on Nato is increasing as Ukraine War goes badly for Putin
Russian nationalists are calling for Vladimir Putin to launch an attack on Nato member Estonia
Russia is beginning its inevitable collapse, as it has always done: in 1830, 1905, 1917, and 1989. But that also makes it more dangerous; a cornered rat is most vicious, and if the collapse is drawn out, Moscow could lash out and drag us down with it.
Ukraine has regained the initiative over the battlefield and, in some areas, it has taken a small amount of ground. According to Meduza, a Russian-language investigative news website, Russian fatalities since the full-scale invasion in 2022 reached 352,000 last year; it’s likely that the figure could hit 400,000 this month.
A million Russians have become casualties, dead or wounded. Even in a country with a large population, more than a million casualties without gaining ground is unsustainable.
North Korean troops on Red Square
The Kerch Bridge to Crimea – the Kremlin’s first Ukrainian conquest in 2014 – remains unreliable, and continued Russian control over the area is increasingly at risk. And the 'land bridge' that Russia seized in 2022, running from the peninsula to the occupied city of Mariupol, is now under fire control by Ukraine’s long-range drones.
Morale amongst the Russians is abysmal; and their nationalist bloggers are screeching. One, Evgeny Golman, said: “The front is shocked, everything is screwed”; another, Yegor Guzenko, criticised Vladimir Putin’s conduct of the war and reportedly ended up in a ‘meat’ assault unit with a broken leg.
Victory Day, held annually on May 9, is supposed to represent Russia’s ‘glory’ to the world, but as we saw this year, it had nothing to show. No armour, no power, but plenty of North Korean troops on Red Square. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy even mockingly issued a decree permitting the parade.
Russia is collapsing and there are increasingly credible reports that Putin’s position is vulnerable. There will be no sudden soul-searching, no mass realisation about the immorality of the invasion; instead, the rats will flee or fight each other to survive as the war economy crumbles.
But that does not mean Russia is not dangerous, and there is no indication that Putin has the self-awareness to realise his position. His demands remain unchanged: full control of the Donbas region with all sanctions against his regime lifted and no Nato membership for Ukraine.
Trump’s disdain for Nato a factor
Listen to the Kremlin and its propagandists, and you’ll realise there is no possibility of negotiation or compromise. Russia’s leadership is still convinced that it can divide the West and maintain its maximalist demands.
And with good reason. US President Donald Trump’s actions over Greenland and Iran have caused Nato to fracture; there is no trust between Washington and its erstwhile allies in Europe. Trump has made it clear that he doesn’t value the North Atlantic alliance.
With casualties mounting in Ukraine, a looming economic catastrophe at home, and a huge loss of influence abroad, Russia may decide to test Nato to regain the strategic initiative. This test would likely occur in Narva.
A small, bleak city in eastern Estonia, Narva is plagued by unemployment and post-industrial decline. It is also mostly inhabited by ethnic Russians, and Russian nationalists are already demanding that Moscow intervenes to “return the city to the motherland”.
The exact same messaging played out in 2014 when Russia moved to seize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. The same flags, rallying cries, and historical distortions.
If Estonia is attacked, this would trigger Article 5 of the Nato treaty, the commitment to collective defence. However, that does not mean nukes would be launched at Russia; a response could take weeks, even months, to occur.
The Kremlin will bet that Trump will not support Europe, that some Nato countries will prevaricate, and others will be too internally divided to mount an effective response. And thus, the Nato alliance could collapse.
READ MORE: State of UK's Armed Forces is bordering on a national emergency. This is no time for party politics
UK military not ready for war
It is a calculated risk with high stakes, but there is a logic to it. Trump’s fury over Europe’s refusal to participate in the war against Iran makes it unlikely that American support would be forthcoming should Russia test Nato.
The Kremlin is probably right that some Nato members would drag their feet. The Czech Republic and Slovakia both have governments that would likely avoid conflict, as could some smaller members like Montenegro and North Macedonia.
The countries with leaders who would be most willing to stand up to Russian aggression – particularly the UK, Germany, and France – may not be able to offer a response either. Their militaries are chronically underfunded and undertrained, and joint exercises with Ukrainian troops utilising drones have repeatedly made it clear that European soldiers are not ready for drone warfare.
Then there’s the disenchantment present in the working classes of Western nations, the traditional recruiting pool of the Armed Forces. Military service is no longer a viable career, it’s poorly paid with no social prestige. Surveys have also repeatedly suggested that many people, in some cases a majority, in Western European countries would not be willing to fight for their country even if invaded.
Can we blame them? Exponentially rising housing costs, cultural disconnect, a sense of no longer belonging in their own countries, of being ignored by the political elite; these are all valid concerns, and all are exploited by Russian disinformation now – and would be again, should a war begin.
Russia is collapsing, and it will, but that collapse must be as harsh, total, and rapid as possible to ensure the Kremlin does have time to pivot to a challenge against Nato. Otherwise, we could be dragged into war that we are woefully unprepared for.
Andrew Sweeney is a correspondent for TVP World, the English-language channel of Poland’s public broadcaster
Comments
Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.