Why SNP may face a Keir Starmer-like decline even if they win Scottish election
With their supporters outnumbered by two to one, the SNP should beware getting carried away if they win the Holyrood election in May
Two new poll findings initially seem to paint a contradictory picture about the state of public opinion in Scotland.
According to a More in Common survey, the SNP appears to be on track to win 64 seats at the Scottish Parliament – just one short of a majority – in May’s elections. However, the same pollsters also found 73 per cent of respondents were unhappy with the status quo and wanted to see a change.
A possible explanation is that, while the SNP is well ahead of Scottish Labour and Reform, they are not exactly tremendously popular in Scotland with 33 per cent support in the constituency vote. It could be that this figure consists of those who don’t want change, and a few who either believe John Swinney is the person to deliver it or don’t feel particularly strongly.
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Labour’s stumbles
The nationalists’ position is similar to Labour’s at the 2024 general election, when Keir Starmer and co won 63 per cent of the seats in the Commons thanks to just under 34 per cent of the votes. Scotland’s partly proportional electoral system helps avoid such a stark disparity but half the seats on a third of the votes may still strike some as unfair.
Since July 2024, Labour have been struggling to deliver the “change” they promised to the satisfaction of voters, stumbling from one misstep to another. After a steady decline, Labour now sits at about 19 per cent in the polls.
The serried ranks of Labour MPs at Westminster seem to have given some a false sense of security, enabling rebellions, private briefings against each other and petty squabbling that has only helped to weaken the party further.
Consensus politics
If the SNP is returned as the party of government, they should beware similar arrogance even if it manifests itself in different ways.
A government whose supporters are outnumbered by about two to one should, if it has any sense, adopt a conciliatory approach, avoid trying to force through unpopular legislation, and embrace consensus politics and compromise.
Come May, any SNP triumphalism should be short-lived or, in these volatile times, they may find themselves facing a Starmeresque decline.
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