Why Scottish Tories - and leader Russell Findlay - have no option but to attack

With those famous words, Marshal Ferdinand Foch signalled his successful intension to halt the German advance at the First Battle of the Marne in 1914. But in a similarly desperate situation can Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay reverse his party’s fortunes and halt the march of Reform? After the defection of MSPs Graham Simpson to Nigel Farage’s Barmy Jock Army and Jeremy Balfour to, at most, a footnote in Scottish political history, it does not look good.

As Reform’s sole MSP, Graham Simpson will be the party’s Scottish leader by default until one is named, which will be a test because most of his former colleagues would agree that when charm and charisma were being handed out it must have been his day off. On his first foray in light blue on Tuesday he seemed downcast and nervous, but for now that’s not the point; the Conservatives are on the ropes at the hands of a bunch of political refugees who are not household names in their own households. Reform could yet become the second biggest party in Holyrood, and the more the left-wing establishment howls in frustrated fury, the stronger they seem.

Oddly, analysis of voting patterns by master pollster Mark Diffley, presented at a breakfast event at the Royal Bank of Scotland last Friday, shows that an unlikely four per cent swing from SNP to Labour actually boosts Reform’s projected return next May to 22 seats. The SNP would still be the biggest single party, even if John Swinney would be running a weak minority administration needing the support of two other parties to get anything done. It seems no matter the permutation, the dice always roll the SNP’s way.

Although no doubt a surprise to most voters, Graham Simpson’s much-anticipated defection was already priced in by the Conservative leadership, but Jeremy Balfour’s angry resignation was the more disappointing because of the nature of his criticism ̶ claims of a lack of serious attention to reform of what he recognised as an increasingly unaffordable welfare system, and attacking what he said was a “lack of ambition” for a central belt policy, which was unquestionably a frustration under the previous leader Douglas Ross, a Moray farmer. But Russell Findlay, a Glaswegian crime reporter? It seemed premature when he’s barely been in the job a year.

The brutal reality is whatever policy positions the party adopts ─ and there are “policy clusters” charged with developing new plans ─ voters aren’t listening because there is next to no chance of them being implemented, and for the same reason media organisations don’t pay much attention. Russell Findlay must therefore grab attention by other means, and so the resignation letter went further, claiming “the Scottish Conservatives have fallen into the trap of reactionary politics, where a positive, proactive agenda for real change has been rejected in favour of allowing policies to be dictated by what other parties are saying and chasing cheap headlines.”

Really? It would be an unusual party which succeeded without creating headlines, cheap or otherwise. Maybe it says more about my politics, but Russell Findlay’s recent speeches as he develops his “common sense” agenda, don’t smack of a bid to outflank a Reform Party notable for having little to say in Scotland, even if that’s because until now they have had no one to say it. Rejecting gender extremism, challenging net zero orthodoxy which would render thousands of homes valueless, upgrading killer roads, giving councils enough resources to clean the streets, are hardly a lurch to the far right, but perhaps Jeremy Balfour’s criticisms exposed a certain naivety about the way politics and the media operate.

With Reform way ahead in national polling, the chance of it forming the next UK Government and becoming the official opposition in Holyrood is real and that means the kind of scrutiny it has never faced before. Perhaps a prolonged examination to which Reform, and Graham Simpson, have still to be subjected will limit their progress, and some strategists believe there are already signs of a plateau.

Across the big, devolved responsibilities like education and the NHS there is no specific Scottish Reform programme as yet ̶ it will all be “laid out” in the next few weeks, said Graham Simpson ̶ yet support on the right is now evenly split between the Scottish Conservatives and Reform, halving the support Tories enjoyed in 2022. Senior Conservatives believe the position will change as the election approaches and Reform is forced to put a team on the pitch and as the official opposition Russell Findlay’s front bench will be in pole position to challenge the SNP’s record. It may be wishful thinking and the situation is irreversible, but the alternative is just to give up.

The polls aren’t lying and after this week it’s impossible to argue things are going well for Russell Findlay, but he inherited a hideously difficult position, not least because an opposing faction reckoned he was the puppet of some sort of “establishment” stitch-up. I remain unconvinced any individual, certainly none currently sitting in the Scottish Parliament, could erase the effect of the party’s national rejection last year after the chaos of the Conservative government’s post-pandemic years.

One statistic which stood out from the Diffley presentation was that 39 per cent of voters don’t know what they think of Russell Findlay, so they are there to be persuaded and maybe if they knew more about him it would change. His left might be giving way, his right retreating and his situation far from excellent, but he has no alternative but to attack and his best weapon is himself.