Why Scotland must prepare for its deadliest flu outbreak in half a century
The SNP government appears unprepared for what could be a particularly bad flu outbreak in Scotland
A boxer who died after 12 hours in intensive care and a hiker who died on Christmas Day – these are just some of the tragedies behind the 463 flu deaths recorded in last year’s flu season in Scotland. It was the deadliest outbreak for 45 years and, sadly, medical experts are now warning that 2025 could be even worse.
Every year, the international medical community monitors seasonal flu viruses for the latest mutations. This year, though, the strain H3N2 mutated significantly in the summer – giving it a greater chance of slipping through some of the protection we have built up over past flu seasons.
As a result, the flu season has started unusually early this year, with H3N2 – the worst kind of globetrotter – already shutting schools in Japan. We can’t control the mutations of a flu virus anymore than we can control the weather. But just like another fixture of the Scottish autumn, the gale force winds, we can ensure that we’re braced for it.
Low vaccination rates
Unfortunately, the SNP shows every sign of being the daytripper who didn’t check the forecast and turns up in shorts. Two factors exacerbated last year’s deadly flu outbreak.
First, flu vaccination rates for those at risk fell by a fifth, with 350,690 fewer Scots receiving a jab last year than the previous flu season. The largest proportion will simply be struggling to get the time off work, who are juggling care, or may not even be aware they’re eligible in the first place.
Only one in three at-risk Scots aged 18 to 64 got a flu jab last year, and just 17.2 percent of social care workers, compared to 83.8 percent of older care home residents.
And the way the Scottish Government delivers vaccinations has changed. The SNP has centralised vaccination services, meaning that GPs who in the past might have offered to give a patient their jab can only tell them to book an appointment at a centrally run clinic. Not ideal in remote and rural areas. Too often, life gets in the way.
SNP must act with hospitals under real pressure
But it’s about hospitals too. This year’s flu season is racing towards a hospital system that is already flailing. This September was the worst on record in Scotland’s A&E, with 6,609 patients waiting 12 hours or longer in an emergency department to be treated.
As Dr Fiona Hunter, the Royal College of Emergency Medicine’s vice-president for Scotland puts it, “our emergency departments don’t have elastic walls”.
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Long waits for treatment are deadly in themselves – analysis by the Royal College of Emergency Medicine found that there were more than 800 deaths associated with long A&E waits before admission in Scotland last year.
Now Dr Hunter has called on the SNP government to produce a tangible plan, warning “we are in crisis and the depths of winter, when the inevitable seasonal pressure is yet to arrive”.
Health Secretary Neil Gray is due to make a statement on winter pressures later this week. But the lesson of last winter is that we need action before a crisis, not warm words afterwards. And the test of whether the SNP has learned this is about to arrive.
Jackie Baillie is MSP for Dumbarton, Scottish Labour’s deputy leader and her party’s spokesperson for health
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