Why Reform UK offers Scotland the last chance to make devolution successful
Reform UK’s leader in Scotland, Malcolm Offord, has set out his plans to make taxes lower than they are south of the Border
As we now count down the days to the vote for new members to populate the Holyrood parliament, we should welcome the fact that Malcolm Offord has presented a realistic alternative to the cosy consensus that has ensured Scotland is broken.
In his first major speech since becoming leader of Reform UK in Scotland, Offord – now voluntarily no longer a Lord – committed his party to equalising the taxes Scots pay to the same levels as the rest of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. It is a laudable goal – but he has gone further and argued that to make Scotland truly competitive, to ensure it raises its levels of economic growth and generates higher tax revenues, he would seek lower taxes than the rest of the UK.
It is the sort of message that Ruth Davidson could have made when in all her pomp she presented an attractive alternative to the divisive Nicola Sturgeon, but she chose not to because, one can only surmise, she did not hold such a vision.
A near-£3 billion tax cut
The policy of firstly equalising our income tax bands and then undercutting the rest of the UK is a brave ambition, a refreshing statement of intent that will set alive the election by providing a genuine alternative.
Of course, those opponents who believe the only way to increase revenues is to raise taxes are outraged and are already presenting Offord’s proposal as if it would create an immediate funding gap that could not be afforded. Yet that is not what Offord is saying.
He wishes to use his first Budget to rationalise all Scottish income tax bands in line with the rest of the UK and then cut tax for everyone by one per cent below England. As the Fraser of Allander Institute recognises, it will cost approximately £1.8-2 billion in savings (just to equalise the tax burdens) and then another £1bn to cut taxes at every band by one per cent so that people are motivated to grow our economy and thus generate higher revenues.
Adding one per cent to Scotland’s economic growth for a decade means GDP would be £22bn higher with £8bn more in tax. The intention is not just to improve productivity, entrepreneurial endeavour and open up Scotland for business, but to stem the flow of those bright talents leaving Scotland for lower taxes elsewhere in the UK and entice those who would want to come home and build their success in Scotland.
All of these outcomes would be to the benefit of everyone, be they taxpayers or the beneficiaries of public services. The idea that finding savings is impossible is, I suggest, arrant nonsense and the collectivist SNP and Labour parties know it.
Reform would protect welfare spending
The initial £2bn target is a mere 2.8 per cent of the total spending of nearly £70bn by the Scottish Government. Scots can then choose how to spend that £2bn themselves and will make better choices than politicians do on their behalf.
Of course, it is only right that Offord should present a broad outline of how these savings could be achieved before the Holyrood election. That’s why he has not demurred from developing his theme further, for we are only seeing the opening salvos of the election campaigns.
What we do know is that Reform’s proposals shield the weakest, with welfare, health and education all protected. Offord is, however, defining the differences so voters have a real choice – more of which I expect on other issues.
Already we can see that the SNP and Labour will squabble over variations of the failing status quo while Reform UK offers to do what its name says on the tin, and deliver change.
New policies of restoring the prosperity created by Scotland’s oil and gas expertise, of encouraging new productive start-ups and releasing the dynamism by repealing anti-growth regulations that hold us back are all possible.
SNP wants Scotland to stay broken
The truth is that the SNP does not want devolution to work – Labour does not know how – while the Scottish Conservatives tilt at windmills.
John Swinney’s SNP would rather Scotland is broken so he can say only independence can mend it. And yet it is chiefly his policy prescriptions over the last 19 years that have broken our public services that he was steward of – be it our overburdened health service, our once-revered education system, our untenable university and college finances, the overcrowded courts and prisons, and the scandalous drugs deaths through lack of rehabilitation beds.
Anas Sarwar’s Labour is no different, just a different cheek of the same grotesque face of the broken Scottish state. Except on the constitutional question, Labour’s instinct is to throw more money we do not have at every problem it has helped to create in the belief that the lack of funds is the root cause of poorer outcomes which others enjoy.
Both parties also instinctively turn to introducing more regulations that add costs, reduce productivity and repress initiative. These demands all require more unaccountable state institutions to police them and of course more taxes to fill the black holes that percolate through our public finances.
Sadly, with only a few honourable exceptions over the last decade and more, the Scottish Conservatives in Holyrood repeatedly inflated the threat of referendums (so they could say they would prevent them) when what was required was a serious route map to providing functioning and fit-for-purpose services.
At last devolution is being given the chance to work as intended – by focussing on how we improve our public services and improve the laws that guide them. Leaving Scotland broken is simply not viable.
Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org
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