Why pandering to Reform voters is not the way to win elections in Scotland

As well as 4,000 runners, there were thousands more lining the streets around Arthur’s Seat, yelling support and waving home-made signs. Some kids had produced boards with messages like ‘Touch here for energy’ and whooped with delight when runners veered across to oblige.

I spent much of the run thinking about politics, and reached one particular conclusion: I bet not one person here today would vote for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.

And that being the case, how do Scottish political parties gather these many positive, productive and upbeat people – happy to sacrifice a Saturday morning for a joyous, worthwhile activity – and unite them in the way the Edinburgh Marathon Festival had?

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Most Scots don’t support Reform

We’re now a week away from the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, and the contest has been dominated by the presence of Reform and their potential impact. But even at a high point, this insurgent party is unlikely to achieve more than 25 per cent of the vote in South Lanarkshire, meaning three-quarters of locals would have voted elsewhere.

The latest Scotland-wide polling indicates Reform would reach about 14 per cent in next year’s Scottish Parliament election. In other words, 86 per cent of Scots won’t be backing them.

Instead of figuring out how to peel voters back from Reform, all parties should be vying for the overwhelming majority of people who reject them. There is a burgeoning group in middle Scotland who do indeed want something different from politics, and are – to use Scotland’s cliché-de-jour – “scunnered”.

These voters can be appealed to in a positive way, by talking up the potential of the country and its people, telling good stories about climate change and immigration, and setting out hard-and-fast aspirations for standards in schools and quality of healthcare. They pine for thought, intellect and optimism in their leaders.

That rhetoric might not play well with Reform’s target market, who want to hear truculent phrases like “net stupid zero”.

Punching low

Farage’s recent repugnant Facebook video, which falsely suggested Labour leader Anas Sarwar prioritises Pakistanis over Scots, exposed exactly where Reform thinks its voters are. The intention was clear: you might not be able to pin racism on us, but we sure as hell want the votes of the dregs of society and the lowest common denominator.

That could be helpful for the other political parties. Reform’s stall has been set out ahead of next year’s Holyrood election; they will spend the campaign punching low. Let them. It leaves a swathe of Scots who’d rather look up than down, and all parties have less than a year to bring them on board.

As I wheezed my way along the Salisbury Crags at Saturday’s running event and the Scottish Parliament building loomed into view, I deeply regretted my lack of training and woeful preparation.

Holyrood’s established parties must ensure they don’t have similar regrets when they return there after the 2026 election.

Adam Morris is the former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives