Why Labour's Davy Russell produced the funniest by-election result of my lifetime
Labour’s victory in the Hamilton by-election exposes the sleekit politics of John Swinney, writes Brian Wilson
I have reacted to by-election results over the years with despair and delight in roughly equal measures. However, I have never laughed so much as I did in response to this one.
That wasn’t just because Labour won in the face of relentlessly negative soothsaying. Nor was it just because pundits and prognosticators who feed off the received wisdom of each other were made to look stupid, delicious though that is.
The bonus was that the result exposed the sleekit politics of John Swinney so effectively. He falsely framed the by-election as a crusade against Reform UK which only he, Honest John, could forestall – and lost not only the vote but also his credibility.
READ MORE: Hamilton by-election: In pictures throughout the night as Labour wins over SNP and Reform
Voters ignore Swinney’s crude strategy
Time and again, he claimed it was “a straight fight between SNP and Reform”. I don’t expect a lot from Swinney but even I found it surprising that the First Minister of Scotland should front such a crude strategy. A little dignity, slightly above the fray, would not have gone amiss.
A couple of months ago, it was “Scotland” that must unite against Reform and we had Swinney’s ridiculous summit to brand them outcasts beyond the political pale. Then, hey presto, a by-election comes along and it was only the SNP which could stop them; party and nation conflated.
The big laugh is that while lazy commentators regurgitated this script, the voters ignored it. Twenty-six per cent voted Reform anyway while enough of the rest voted Labour. The SNP’s whole campaign was built around a lie and it backfired beautifully.
While they were talking about Farage, Labour was hearing basic concerns from actual voters. Unsurprisingly, these tended to be about the state of the NHS and impoverishment of local government rather than abstractions such as a candidate declining the invitation to be baited in a televised rabble.
Received wisdom
Was I surprised by the result? Well, yes and no. When it was called, I expected it to be a fairly straightforward SNP hold. They had a decent majority to defend; the circumstances of the by-election arising were entirely devoid of scandal; the Labour government had not exactly covered itself in glory over ten months.
On top of that, our old friend ‘received wisdom’ suggested that a strong showing by Reform would further split the ‘unionist’ vote, though I was sceptical about whether the constitutional question is of great relevance to Reform’s appeal.
On the other hand, I knew the relentlessly upbeat tone of Labour’s well-organised campaign reflected what they were hearing on the fabled doorsteps. This was at odds with Swinney’s ‘vote SNP to stop Reform’ con trick – and if Labour’s number crunchers knew that to be untrue, so did the SNP’s.
Labour will celebrate with good cause but won’t get carried away. It was still a close-run thing but its importance is that it changes the narrative. It leaves Anas Sarwar with a clear message to prosecute – that if you want change next year, there is only one way to deliver it. Having got back onto that front foot, they now have to stay there.
‘Peak Reform’
Scottish Labour’s decline in fortunes since last July has been entirely linked to perceptions of the UK Government, which are beginning to improve. However, if the same thing is not to happen again, it will be essential that every Whitehall action is viewed, in significant part, through the Scottish and Welsh electoral prisms, which certainly did not happen last July.
I think there probably is a “peak Reform” in Scotland, ironically because they are fishing in the same pool of general disgruntlement that the SNP used to rely on. Much of that is now directed against government from Edinburgh, creating room for a populist party which is not the SNP, but only up to a point.
Sensible voices have warned against branding Reform voters racists or extremists rather than people with a legitimate sense of frustration about conditions in which they and their communities find themselves. I am sure that is where most of the Reform votes in this by-election came from.
Then Nigel Farage turns up with a bizarre attack on Anas Sarwar, suggesting he owes more loyalty to Pakistan than to Scotland. It’s as if Farage can’t help himself. Almost nobody whose votes Reform did not already have could take this charge seriously while it must have driven away a fair number of undecideds, for now and the future.
Tories should hold their nerve
What the Reform vote confirms is not that there are 26 per cent racists and extremists in South Lanarkshire but that there is a gap in the Scottish market for a party of the right which does not have Tory on the label. Indeed, that was personified by the Reform candidate who, six months ago, was a Tory councillor. A change of rosette took him from six per cent to 26.
Maybe more than any other party, the Scottish Tories have a vested interest in the Reform star waning over the next 11 months. Given the past record of parties with which Farage has been associated, that is quite likely to happen. The best bet for the Scottish Tories is to hold their nerve and hope for that outcome, rather than lurch to the right in order to compete.
But the biggest loser from this by-election deserves to be John Swinney who has always survived by political calculation rather than any higher principle. This time, he seriously miscalculated and ended up with less than 30 per cent of the vote. It’s “game on” for long overdue change.
Most Scots know there is a mediocre, spendthrift government in Edinburgh which is not going to get better. The door is again open to offering a credible alternative. Well done, Davy Russell!
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