Why John Swinney’s 'Tory austerity' claims don’t withstand scrutiny - Murdo Fraser

It is, from a Nationalist perspective, a very convenient explanation. If all the bad things that are happening in Scotland are really Westminster’s fault, then the SNP can escape all negative criticism. If only we had the levers of power, they cry, everything in Scotland would be fine.

So it is worth examining the extent to which this claim is actually true. And in that respect we are fortunate to have the analysis from the respected and politically independent Fraser of Allander Institute, who have done detailed work looking at the size of the Westminster block grant to the Scottish Government since devolution was established in 1999.

What the Fraser of Allander research tells us is that the picture is very different from the one portrayed by John Swinney and his ministerial colleagues. According to their figures, the Westminster block grant in the current year is 69 per cent higher in real terms since 1999, having increased from £25.6 billion to £43.3 billion. That doesn’t look much like a record of austerity to me.

Looking at the figures in more detail, the chart shows a rapid increase in the early years of devolution, from 1999 to 2010. Following the financial crash there was then a levelling off of the value of the block grant, until a spike in 2022/2021, with the injection of additional Covid funds. But even taking account of the period since the election of the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010, the block grant for the current year is still up on 2010, from £40.6 billion to £43.3 billion, a 7 per cent real terms increase.

All this puts into perspective the claims we hear from the SNP about cuts to the Scottish Government’s budget. In historic terms, it is higher than it was in 2010 and substantially higher than in 1999, accounting for inflation. Even considering that prices have risen considerably in recent years, as a direct result of both the post-Covid boom and Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukaine, the current Finance Secretary, Shona Robison, has funds at her disposal which her predecessors in office could only dream of.

So with all this extra money, why do we see so much pressure on Scottish Government budgets? Why do we see local authorities, for example, having their core finding slashed, leading to the reduction in local services? The only credible answer to that must be poor management of the public finances by a Party that never understood finance in the first place, that has made the wrong choices with the funds at its disposal, that has wasted far too much cash on foolish projects, and that has simply been in power too long.

If ever evidence was required of the SNP’s financial failure, it came this week when it emerged that Ministers are set to hand back £450 million of EU money from European structural and investment funds, which they had failed to spend on vital economic and anti-poverty projects. For the period 2014-2020, Scotland has already had to return 199 million euros from these funds, due to the inability to spend these appropriately. There is another 331 million euros which have not yet been spent which will also have to be sent back.

It is simply staggering that nearly half a billion pounds of public funds, ultimately deriving from the UK taxpayer, may be lost to Scotland when there are so many vital projects that this money could be used to fund. It is an issue which was entirely foreseeable and avoidable, had appropriate measures been put in place to identify and fund projects that would meet the relevant criteria.

And this is an issue where Scotland performs much worse than any other part of the United Kingdom. Wales is expected to return 9 per cent of the EU money it receives, England 6 per cent, and Northern Ireland 2 per cent. But in Scotland we are now expected to return 28 per cent of the EU funds received in the past six years, a dismal track record which can only come back to the door of an inept and failing Scottish Government.

In any other circumstances these details would be damaging for a government, but in the middle of a General Election campaign they must surely represent the death knell for SNP MPs and candidates up and down the country. They represent a government in Edinburgh which has had unprecedented sums of money to spend, but has left Scotland in a much poorer state than it was when they came to power 17 years ago, and now they are having to hand back £450 million, every penny of which is desperately needed by communities across Scotland.

The claims that “Tory austerity” is holding Scotland back are simply not backed by the evidence, as the Fraser of Allander Institute research shows. Nor have the SNP ever been able to explain how pursuing Scottish independence, creating a multi-billion-pound black hole in the Scottish public finances, would be in our interests.

It is their track record in handling the external funding they receive, whether from Westminster or from the EU, that makes them entirely unfit for office. This will be a judgment many voters make when it comes to July the 4th.