How SNP's obsession with offshore wind is brewing up multi-billion-pound storm for consumers – Brian Wilson
Brian Wilson, an early believer in a transition to clean power, argues the way that this honourable aim is now being pursued is a betrayal of common sense
I went to see the film “Pressure” and very good it was too. It tells the story of James Stagg, the meteorologist from Dalkeith whose advice to General Eisenhower was critical to the D-Day landings, and to avoiding the catastrophe of going a day earlier.
The tension was between the taciturn Stagg and his flashy American counterpart who sought to convince Ike that the weather would be ideal on the original date. Stagg insisted that the Yank didn’t understand the North Atlantic where conditions change rapidly and unpredictably.
Those responsible for Scotland’s energy policy could do worse than learn from a night at the movies. The morning after my own, I woke to conditions so calm that I checked where our electricity was coming from. Three per cent was from wind, scarcely a sliver on the pie chart.
Forty per cent was from gas generation and 20 per cent from “imports”, which mainly means French nuclear and Norwegian gas. This was not typical or predictable but the message of “Pressure” was that, when it comes to our weather, very little is. Yet it is the unpredictable we must plan for.
When the wind doesn’t blow
But, I hear true believers cry, on average, Scotland already produces more electricity from wind than it consumes and we’re going to double it! To which, I imagine, James Stagg might have replied drily: “Averages are irrelevant. It’s days when the wind doesn’t blow that matter.”
I write this with some regret. As an early believer in a transition to clean power, I did my bit politically to promote it. However, the way that honourable objective is now pursued in Scotland, without nuance or regard for inconvenient realities, is a betrayal of common sense.
Adopting offshore wind as the alpha and omega of Scottish energy policy is lazy and deluded – even more so if linked to claims on behalf of energy “independence”, let alone the political variety.
The economic value of Scotland’s wind is entirely reliant on inter-dependence. Current plans would increase generating capacity by multiples of our own demand. So someone has to want it and pay for getting it to them.
There was an energy debate in Holyrood last week and the minister, Stephen Gethins, devoted his entire speech to offshore wind, and how well it is all going. In this world, windless days are for other people to worry about.
ScotWind licences sold off cheap
As often happens, it has taken the Auditor General for Scotland to point out a few realities. When the ScotWind programme was announced in 2022, Nicola Sturgeon, of not very blessed memory, proclaimed it be the great industrial opportunity of our times. So far (as with onshore wind previously) delivery falls far short of rhetoric.
The ScotWind licences were sold cheaply, for £755 million, based on the rationale that this would deliver greater supply chain benefits. That was not underpinned by bankable assurances so it is unsurprising the developers are doing what they would have done anyway. This has created, so far, a reduction in commitments to the Scottish supply chain from 38 to 30 per cent, which equates to £7.4 billion. And we’ve only just begun.
Incidentally, it is disappointing that the Auditor General did not delve a little deeper into murky waters to investigate the original advice accepted by Scottish government ministers, which was to sell the ScotWind licences for barely one-tenth of the relative pittance eventually realised. It suggested capping the total take for the best 20 offshore wind sites in Scottish waters at just £86m, the Auditor General confirms. That is almost beyond belief, even in Scotland.
The numbers were only revised at the last minute after English and Welsh auctions demonstrated what the market would pay, so Scotland narrowly avoided what really would have been a historic rip-off. I would like to know where that advice came from and whether it was driven by nothing more sinister than incompetence.
READ MORE: SNP handed stark 'wake-up call' over frittering away £100m ScotWind revenues to balance books
As the Auditor General pointed out, £100m has already been subsumed into general expenditure with another £500m earmarked for the same fate. He has called for “transparency” and annual reports to Holyrood on how the ScotWind money is being used. Good luck with that.
It certainly hasn’t been seen by Scottish communities which will be in the front line of these developments, whether they like it or not. Is it any wonder that there is increasing resistance to top-down plans which offer so little tangible benefit for the places most affected?
At present, the phenomenal cost of reconstructing the National Grid is being borne by consumers throughout the UK and spent disproportionately in Scotland to accommodate wind generation. At some point, there will be a reality check on the gap between volumes of wind power produced and the capacity for transporting it to markets in the south.
Scotland’s proud energy past
According to the National Energy System Operator, the cost of compensating windfarm operators – mainly in Scotland – for not generating power because there is nowhere for it to go, or it is surplus to requirements, is running at more than £1bn a year, and is expected to increase to £8bn by 2030.
NESO have dared suggest that if Scotland is going to generate so much power from wind, it should maybe focus on data centres to create an alternative use and destination. Needless to say, there is already push-back on that (led, comically, by the pro-renewable Greens).
So what’s the alternative? Just keep producing surplus wind power on days the wind blows, insist someone else pays for it and claim persecution if they don’t? Is this Scotland’s energy policy?
We must do better. Scotland has a proud and successful energy past, from hydro through nuclear to the North Sea, before Holyrood was heard of. We now need realism about what wind power will deliver and, crucially, what else we need. No pressure!
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