How Donald Trump and his supporters are planning to steal the US election

With an army of committed supporters including polling-station enforcers, Republican state and congressional legislators, battle-hardened legal attorneys – and possibly Justices on the Supreme Court – Trump appears determined to corrupt, abuse and undermine the forthcoming elections. He had trial runs in 2016 and 2020 but this time the resilience of American democracy will be severely challenged.

The problems can be traced back to the Founding Fathers in the late 1780s, when voting rights were restricted to white, male, wealthy, land-owning Christians. There were no political parties and no inkling of a presidential candidate from hell to worry about.

Carpet-bombing of democracy

The US Constitution, nearly 250 years old, frames much of what happens today, but is hopelessly out of date. There is no prospect of change because the Republican party and the states are satisfied with the existing provisions as they further their cause.

Crucially, the constitution gave the then 13 states the power to regulate voting laws. This is the key to the current crisis, with half of today’s 50 US states in Republican control. Combined with the Republicans’ contempt for the principles of democracy and an electoral system that is easily manipulated at state level, this provides an unprecedented opportunity to undermine Kamala Harris’s campaign.

The clear Trump strategy depends on the collaboration of Republicans at every stage of the voting process and in every institution. This will be a comprehensive carpet-bombing of democracy without parallels in Western Europe.

The aims are obvious: to prevent Democratic supporters from voting by using a variety of disenfranchising methods, and undermine the ballot process at every stage by refusing to approve and certify the results, from state level to the Supreme Court.

Alarming and sinister

Trump is trying to rig this election in his favour but will certainly embark on another “stop the steal” campaign, with denialism and insurrection, if he loses. If defeated, expect another violent assault on Capitol Hill that heightens the chance of a political civil war.

Difficult to imagine, but America is neither secure nor stable, with its politics consumed by grudge and grievance, resentment and revenge. Trump is testing democracy to its limits and the “land of the free and the home of the brave” could be turned into an authoritarian, populist regime.

There is already a blueprint for what this would look like – Project 25, an alarming and sinister set of proposals from the Heritage Foundation, a right-wing think tank. This includes a plan to place the entire federal government, including the Department of Justice, currently an independent agency, under direct presidential control.

Five reasons to be fearful

There are five main reasons why Trump’s unparalleled assault on a vulnerable democracy could be successful.

First, the gerrymandering of political districts (constituencies) where, at state level, the politicians mark their own homework and do not engage any independent oversight in the redrawing of political boundaries. There have been cases where these have been changed on the basis of race and ethnicity, to maximise the adverse impact on Democratic and independent voters.

Second, voter suppression. Amidst America’s increasingly dysfunctional institutions and bitter cultural divisions, Harris will face a Republican offensive designed to prevent African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, native Americans and others defined as marginalised from voting in November. Every conceivable tactic is being used.

Trump and his Republican allies have even admitted that they tend to lose when elections are free and fair. Promoting this toxic mix of race, ethnicity, identity and culture as a political weapon defiles a democracy. African American families in the “Dixie” southern states, where Georgia and North Carolina excel in this political skulduggery, are the main targets of voter suppression.

Third, the infamous and archaic Electoral College. Written into the US Constitution by the Founding Fathers, before the creation of the federal government, the college rejects the basic principles that a president should be elected by a popular nationwide vote across America and that all votes have equal worth.

Instead it gives a permanent electoral advantage to a small number of rural Republican states. The electoral college is made up of a total of 538 electors, based on the 435 House Representatives and 100 Senators with three for Washington DC, meaning that candidates need 270 votes to win. It may have made sense in 1787 but today only electors in a few battleground states will have any influence on the outcome on November 5.

Fourth, the Supreme Court remains the final forum of arbitration on electoral matters in the US, as was the case when the 2000 presidential election between George W Bush and Al Gore was decided in a landmark decision on a recounting dispute in Florida. Packed out with right-wing appointments made by Trump, few expect fair and balanced judgements from a court that’s seen as the judicial arm of the Trump regime.

Finally, this election will take place under a cloud of fear. The Trump campaign openly talks about denying the result if he loses, which could lead to violence and another attempted coup on Capitol Hill. This rhetoric may herald a grim reality.

Harris must win

Harris faces both a political struggle but also a set of darker forces. Trump is eroding the integrity of the voting system and is unwilling to curb his deeply offensive measures of democratic repression as he continues to use corrupt and coercive attempts to wage war on certain voters.

In response to this anticipated mayhem, the Democratic governor in Pennsylvania has established an “Election Protection Task Force” and in many other states they are creating similar bodies.

Harris must win to save America’s democracy.

Henry McLeish is a former First Minister of Scotland who served as Labour MP and MSP for Central Fife and a visiting professor at the University of South Florida