Does Badenoch have the guile to revive the Conservatives in 2025? Brian Monteith

The proliferation of Christmas and New Year distractions means competition for attention – and the cut-through necessary for any message to be memorable – would usually be wasted effort.

There are of course exceptions – when something to be announced is about the period itself (such as festive opening times) or an inescapable public announcement when the personality has relevance. The arrival of social media has made some impact on this general rule but it remains a time to avoid releasing important news – or maybe bury bad news.

It was therefore a calculated risk for Reform UK to make a special media event of the probability its membership numbers overtaking those of the Conservative Party. By launching an online real-time counter showing its growing number on social media platforms the event itself became a spectacle the public could watch – but the knowledge of “if” and “when” remained a gamble the party’s Chairman, Zia Yusuf, and leader, Nigel Farage, would have to take.

Soon after the live membership ticker was launched on Sunday 22nd December it was visible Reform’s recruitment was accelerating and it was only a matter of time before the inevitable happened – possibly around Christmas itself.

When it came it was a significant and yet insignificant event. Significant in that it reminded us how far the Conservative membership had fallen from its 1950s heyday when post-war mass membership took it to over two million, only for it to then endure a slow decline over the years despite a few revivals – to just over 131,000 now.

Significant because it confirmed a new disruptor party based upon grass roots activism that is drawn from disenchantment of former members of all the legacy parties (ironically in part because of their appalling legacy) or from those never before attracted to politics or politicians, is in the ascendant.

And yet for all its historical appearance the eclipse could be downplayed as an insignificant event in that memberships do not determine election outcomes; they ebb and flow but are not a determining factor of electoral popularity. Leadership of membership numbers have been exchanged between Labour and Conservatives over recent decades without corresponding to who has won subsequent elections.

The most striking evidence of this was membership for Labour climbing under Jeremy Corbyn only for him to fail to defeat Theresa May in 2017 or Boris Johnson in 2019. Likewise the SNP membership rocketed after the 2014 referendum but never resulted in independence and is now in a tailspin.

In the end the eclipse happened on Boxing Day and to celebrate the moment Reform UK projected its larger number on to the façade of Conservative Party HQ.

Of course Nigel Farage would seek to make a song and dance about its importance, but would it still be relevant when parliament returned later in January? Surely the real politics in taking on the Labour government in parliament and any forthcoming by-elections would provide opportunity to make it look a momentary irritant.

Then, for some unknown reason I have struggled to find anyone in media or marketing think sensible, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch decided to not only respond personally to the membership issue when it could have been relegated as unimportant by using a faceless official to respond – she actually challenged the veracity of the Reform membership numbers by issuing a patronising rebuttal.

The result was that instead of relegating the membership eclipse to only a brief news story of little real consequence Badenoch managed to promote it on to practically all the front pages of the next day and poke the bear that is Nigel Farage’s carefully nurtured reputation for being an honest if divisive politician telling it as he sees it.

This allowed a predictably indignant Farage to demand an apology, say he would consider legal action for defamation and ensure an extended life of what should only have been a brief act of political theatre.

Badenoch gave the eclipse more oxygen, helping more people know about it and telling people that despite being under new management the Conservatives appear to still be clueless and in decline.

Worse, by challenging the accuracy of Reform’s numbers Yusuf and Farage were able to say they would allow a full independent audit if the Conservatives would do the same. This opens a whole new can of worms best left in a very dark corner of the Tory pantry when there is verifiable testimony the Tory numbers are inflated. Since her intervention Reforms membership has climbed to over 154,000 (with over 6,800 in Scotland) helping add 22,000 to the triumphal total.

This huge political misjudgement points to a deeper concern about the character and temperament of Kemi Badenoch. Bright and intelligent she appears to be, but does she have the patience, guile and good judgement to prevent Farage becoming the dominant representation of opposition to Labour? If Badenoch can get such a small matter so wrong how might she behave when the issues become really tough?

With a new poll suggesting a general election now would mean Labour becoming a minority government requiring Liberal Democrat support to remain in power – Reform would win 71 seats, including defeating six Labour cabinet members.

Badenoch’s behaviour points to a continued inability to confront why the Conservatives lost so badly. She remains in denial about the past Tory government’s record and retains an unjustified and toxic sense of entitlement.

It is not yet 2025 and already the length of her leadership is a matter of doubt. She must change or she will not be leader in 2026.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org