'Digging their own grave': Tories must heed this dire warning from Australia – Ian Johnston
Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull reveals Nigel Farage also thinks Kemi Badenoch is making a mistake by echoing his rhetoric on immigration
The Conservatives – and, to a degree, Labour – have making a massive political mistake for years by pandering to anti-immigration sentiment. Instead of opposing Reform UK’s agenda, they have effectively been telling voters that they agree with Nigel Farage.
Unfortunately, the ongoing immigration crackdown is one reason why economic growth has been lacklustre in recent years, as having fewer workers almost inevitably means a lower GDP. Another is Brexit, a decision largely driven by hostility towards migrants, because of the resulting barriers to trade with the European Union.
Even more unfortunately, the general sense of discontent created by a poor economy appears to be motivating many to ‘give Reform a try’, and go even further down this unpleasant, insular and xenophobic rabbit hole. With such messaging from on high, we should perhaps expect to see more violent riots to cries of “foreigners out”, taking the so-called ‘hostile environment’ for illegal immigrants to new, potentially dangerous extremes.
A falling population and brain drain
This is a vicious circle that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham must find a way to square. It is especially problematic as births in the UK are expected to start being outnumbered by deaths this year.
Hostility towards immigrants is going to be a bad look for a country with a falling population, particularly if the burgeoning ‘brain drain’ gathers pace, as doctors, teachers and other smart people seek a better life in another country. Alas, those with the requisite ‘get up and go’ to move overseas tend to be exactly the sort of people we need – something that applies to emigrants and immigrants alike.
Perceived Conservative wisdom appears to be that placating the immigration concerns of former voters who have switched to Reform will enable them to return to the fold. The problem is that those voters remember the so-called “Boris wave”, when net immigration peaked at nearly 950,000 in 2023 under Johnson’s Tory government.
It may be difficult, but Kemi Badenoch and co need to find a different way to deal with the Reform threat and ditch their current delusional mindset, which seems born of desperation more than anything else. Sometimes, it takes a sympathetic outsider, looking in, to help make such a shift.
Legitimising right-wing populism
Speaking to The Rest is Politics podcast, former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull warned that the Tories under Badenoch had fallen into the same trap as the centre-right Liberal party in Australia, which he led for four years.
In response to the rise of the anti-immigration One Nation party, Turnbull said his party colleagues had been “essentially trying to echo and emulate the right-wing populist arguments that One Nation is putting”.
“The problem is the more you do that, the more you validate and legitimise the right-wing populist... if you're a centre-right party and you run off to the right and you say, ‘right, mass migration is the issue’... Then people say, ‘okay, well, if that's the issue, I'll vote for the real deal’ – [One Nation leader] Pauline Hanson in Australia or Nigel Farage in your country.”
He added: “I think they're they're digging their own grave. Now, interestingly, I discussed this very phenomenon with Farage in your parliament recently, and Farage agreed with me, and he said: ‘This is the mistake Badenoch's making.’”
Turnbull argued that centre-right parties’ “only real political equity” was based on running the economy well. “You’ve got to steer down the centre and focus on economic management and say to people, well, you may not think we're as... good on the environment or health or schools as the left, but... we'll do a reasonable job there... we will make sure the government's solvent, there's more money in your pocket, you know, your kids can get a job – that’s your strength.”
Reckless and fractious
Given the importance of the state of the economy and the cost of living, this seems to me to be a potentially winning argument. If the Tories choose to fight Reform on reducing immigration, they are almost certainly going to lose. However, on economics, they have a much better story to tell, particularly given some of the wilder Reform pledges.
It would be entirely plausible to paint Reform as being too reckless, fractious and inexperienced to be trusted with taxpayers’ money. Just look at the chaos in a number of Reform-run councils. As all good political advisers know: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
The Conservatives suffered a blow to their reputation for sound management under Johnson and Liz Truss, but it is madness to respond by leaning into empty ‘culture war’ politics instead. Given Labour has, so far, failed to kickstart the economy, the UK desperately needs a sensible, right-of-centre alternative in case they continue to do so.
If the Tories and Reform become effectively the same party, their immigration obsession could end up being almost as damaging as Brexit. A National Institute of Economic and Social Research report found that ‘net zero’ migration could result in a UK government budget deficit of about £37 billion by 2040.
Brexiteers have come up with a variety of ways to try to explain why leaving the European Union has not proved to be a roaring success. If reducing immigration to virtually nothing similarly fails to magically bring about a new promised land, where do the proponents of this fantasy go next? Who will they blame for our troubles then?
To paraphrase Turnbull, by validating and legitimising right-wing populists, the Conservatives may not simply be digging their own grave, but one for the whole country as well.
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