As BP's exit shows, Scotland desperately needs a long-term plan

The challenges facing Scotland today are the same as many other Western countries. Without a long-term plan, the issues affecting Scotland today will only get worse.

I fundamentally believe that this can be avoided if political leaders and politicians work together to take decisive action now. The reality is that Scotland needs a pragmatic approach to policy making that is focused on delivery for the benefit for the people of Scotland.

By 2050, the Scotland we know today will feel and look very different. Just look back at the last twenty-five years. What we have witnessed has had a significant impact on our daily lives, whether it be banking, how we pay for goods and services, how we travel or even how we interact with our friends, family and colleagues.

One of the major shortcomings of our political discourse is that all too often, the short-term pressures of electoral politics encourages a narrow, reactive approach to policy making; this results in limited progress on tackling key national priorities and a style of governance that is shaped more by adversarial party politics than by strategic thinking, and ultimately it is the people of Scotland that lose out when this happens.

Scotland is now in its 27th year of devolution, but the need for a different approach is clear. The issues we face – demographic change, NHS pressures, skills shortages, infrastructure demands, climate transition, cost of living, a generation of young people who can’t get a job or on the property ladder or an aging population that will need adequate care and support – cannot be resolved within the confines of a five-year electoral cycle.

It requires a long-term, cross-party approach underpinned by realpolitik, but we the people of Scotland have an important role to play in shaping the future direction of Scotland. A Scotland equipped for 2050 must be guided by a plan that transcends individual governments grounded in political consensus and focused on outcomes for the people of Scotland.

In our 2026 Scottish Parliament manifesto titled: An ambitious long term vision for Scotland, one of our key asks of the incoming Scottish Government was the establishment of a forward planning committee which would be a cross party, evidence led body mandated to take a strategic view of Scotland’s long – term challenges and opportunities and how best to tackle them.

At Scotland 2050, we believe that a forward planning committee would ensure shared ownership and reduce the risk of strategies being dismantled or reversed with each change of government. This approach would strengthen Scotland’s governance, encourage consistency and help deliver more effective long-term outcomes for the people of Scotland.

The recent announcement by BP to put up for sale its North Sea operations should be a wake call to all members of the Scottish Parliament and those in Westminster.

The reality is that the future of oil and gas has been and still is a talking point amongst all political parties, but the announcement by BP doesn’t really come as a shock.

An emphasis on a “meaningful just transition” with very little detail about what that actually entails sat against the backdrop of a fixed policy position in a declining sector has clearly been a significant factor in BP’s decision to announce its intention to sell its North Sea interests.

Understandably this won’t bring any comfort to the 2,000 people directly employed by BP in Aberdeen who are facing the prospect of losing their jobs, and as I write this my heart goes out to every single person affected by this, but if politicians are serious about delivering for the people of Scotland, then now is the time to demonstrate that commitment by working together to mitigate the potential impact that this will have on an area of Scotland has historical ties with the domestic and global energy sector.

The debate around the future of energy is very polarising. For some people, the emphasis should move away from fossil fuel exploration to increased investments in renewables and for others it’s the other way around, but for me it’s a combination of the two, as well as learning lessons from past failures to ensure we are adequately planning for the future in terms of investment, skills and infrastructure.

Addressing the here and now as well as thinking about future investment needs as we, rightly, move away from fossil fuel energy to renewables is critical , but the reality is that in addition to those directly employed by BP, we need to also take into consideration the impact that this decision will also have on supply chains.

It is my understanding that Scottish suppliers benefit from BP’s £690 million procurement spending, which will likely be reduced which will further add to the economic woes of the North East of Scotland.

BP’s exit from the North Sea poses significant challenges for Scotland’s economy and underscores the urgency for the region to diversify its energy sector and invest in renewable energy to ensure long term economic stability.

As I said in my opening remarks in this piece, Scotland needs a long-term plan to tackle the issues facing Scotland today for a better tomorrow. Failure to do so will see political parties punished who fail to deliver for this part of Scotland at the ballot box in 2029 and at the next Scottish Parliament election in 2031 and potentially give rise to another party that is seen as the saviour of energy investment and jobs.

Barrie Cunning is the Founder of Scotland 2050 and Managing Director of Pentland Communications