Milk prices set to soar as Scotland turns tap on to plug English shortage

The UK has gone from a glut of milk, with farmers penalised for producing too much and processors struggling to take supplies, to a looming shortage within months.

The Royal Association of British Dairy Farmers (RABDF) said the latest UK daily milk deliveries showed volumes running 4.8 per cent below the same week last year — a shortfall of about 1.61 million litres a day.

Sources close to the RABDF said with up to a 5 per cent drop, milk prices could go up “maybe 30 per cent or more.”

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The fall in supply has been particularly acute in southern England, where prolonged heat and drought have scorched grass and left cattle struggling with heat stress. Farmers have been forced to use winter feed months earlier than planned, while dry conditions have left them unable to replenish stocks for the months ahead.

Bryce Cunningham, of Ayrshire-based organic dairy Mossgiel Farm said his phone had been “red hot” with requests for milk in the last week from England, where the smaller-scale organic dairy sector has faced severe shortages.

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“We very rarely get asked to send milk down south,” he said. “All of a sudden we’re having to turn the tap on to send produce from Scotland down to the south of England while these farms are having serious problems.

“We’ve sent about 26,000 litres so far. In this industry, that is small, but in the organic world it’s something of value.”

He said the farm had been asked for a further 40,000 litres, which he doesn’t have.

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“If we’re being asked as a very small player in this industry, it shows there’s an enormous industry-wide problem going on here.”

Mr Cunningham said the spike in demand shows how poor the UK is at managing food supply and food security.

“This drought has been forecast by every climate scientist under the sun and now it’s here and we’re not prepared for it,” he said.

The Scottish producer had taken on supplies from farms in Aberdeen and Inverness that were at risk of losing their contracts, but with processors unable to absorb all the milk being produced, some was diverted into cheese and butter. But within weeks, the spare milk is desperately wanted for drinking.

“We went from a bust moment to a boom moment, but we can’t meet the boom movement,” he said. “It’s a rollercoaster.”

The RABDF said it was “unexpected” to be facing the prospect of up to a 5 per cent fall in milk volumes after months in which over-production had dominated the industry.

It added milk normally moved around Britain to balance supply and demand, but the intensity of the heat and dry conditions in southern England meant production losses there were likely to be more severe.

Farmers warned some dairy herds may have to be reduced given forage for winter has been used up and conditions have made it impossible to grow more for the cold months ahead.

The UK Government recently announced a £65m support package for English farmers.

Mr Mossgiel said the funding, once spread among farms, would count as very little. He also said financial aid should be made available to Scottish farmers facing many of the same pressures.

A Defra spokesperson said: “The dairy industry is a resilient and dynamic sector with milk and dairy products regularly moving around the UK, balancing supply with demand.

“Our recent drought package responds to farmers’ needs, putting £65 million behind farmers, including an extra £50 million for Sustainable Farming Incentive agreements for short- and long-term resilience to our changing climate.

“The government will always take action to provide additional support when needed.”