Scottish small company fortunes rebound after 2025 ‘freefall’ - Novuna Business Finance

Lender Novuna Business Finance said 23 per cent of the firms it polled north of the Border were forecasting growth for the first three months of 2026 - rebounding from a 15 per cent low during the final quarter of 2025.

While the latest figure is four percentage points below the UK average, Novuna said Scotland was seeing an end to the “concerning trend” of falling confidence levels during each quarter of 2025.

The growth forecasts for the first three months of 2026 follow a previous Novuna Business Finance poll, which revealed that 78 per cent of Scottish small business owners were looking to roll out growth initiatives for 2026, despite the volatile market conditions.

The firm’s business barometer tracking study goes beyond general measures of confidence.

Around the UK, the regional picture revealed a split result, with growth forecasts rising in six regions and nations and falling in five.

The biggest quarter-on-quarter rises were recorded in the West Midlands (up 9 points) and Scotland (up 8 points). Conversely, growth forecasts in the East Midlands and the north-west of England continued to fall, while London continued to evolve as the region where most small businesses forecasted growth this quarter (40 per cent).

Joanna Morris, head of insight at Novuna Business Finance, said: “Our seasonal research around New Year’s Eve showed a clear statement of intent from Scottish small businesses for the year ahead. Despite the unprecedented market uncertainty and their growth forecasts falling to a record low last year, the majority were determined to find new ways to secure growth this year.

“And now, our new growth forecast data finally shows an upturn in growth forecasts for Scottish enterprises this quarter, after a period during 2025 when they were in freefall. While this is most welcome news, the picture of Britain being divided into two is a concern,” she added.

“Also, our data over 12 years suggests small business confidence often starts well at the start of a year, only to fall away in the quarters that follow.”