Gold price could hit $5,000 after record run but investors need to tread carefully

The precious metal has enjoyed its biggest rally since the 1970s, rising by about a third since April when US President Donald Trump unveiled his global trade tariffs.

Earlier this week the price of spot gold pushed through a record $4,000 an ounce before easing back slightly on Friday. The move marked a doubling in price in less than two years and a rise of around a fifth in just two months.

The rally underlines investors’ unease about debt, inflation and government policy direction, though questions are now emerging about how much further it can go.

Nigel Green, chief executive of financial advisor deVere Group, described the push through $4,000 as a “defining moment for global markets”.

He said: “Central banks are buying record volumes, investors are following, and this combination has created a powerful price momentum. The question now is whether this pace can be sustained.

“The $4,000 milestone is not necessarily a ceiling, yet it does mark a moment for reflection. It shows how fragile confidence in the system has become.

“Gold will remain an important store of value, but its future path will depend on how quickly the world restores faith in its institutions and factors such as sovereign debt management.”

Some investors put their money into gold via exchange-traded funds (ETFs). A record $64 billion (£48bn) has been invested in gold ETFs so far this year, according to the World Gold Council trade association.

Gregor Gregersen, founder of precious metals dealer and storage provider Silver Bullion, said: “Gold will fall at some point, but I believe given the economic environment, it’s on an upward trend for at least five years.”

Some experts believe that the gold price could hit $5,000 an ounce as investors continue to turn to safe-haven assets in times of macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility.

Matthew Piggott, director of gold and silver at consultancy Metals Focus, noted: “With these factors likely to persist through 2026, we see no significant catalysts that would cause gold prices to decline meaningfully. Therefore, we expect gold to continue rising throughout the year, testing $5,000 per ounce.”

While the recent surge has been triggered by short-term uncertainty, the overall strength of gold is largely the result of central banks buying it as a strategic move away from US treasuries and over-reliance on the strength of the dollar.

Rick Kanda, managing director at The Gold Bullion Company, said retail investors looking to grab a slice of the action ought to tread carefully.

“Gold should not be looked at as an asset you react to impulsively,” he cautioned. “Remember that gold is a long-term investment, not a short-term trade, and market fluctuations are a natural part of the cycle, not a reason to panic.

“If you have invested in gold for the right reasons, which are long-term financial storage, short-term declines in the market should not hurt your confidence.”