Alan Little: Appetite for Scottish independence is dependent on 'weather' in Westminster

Speaking to an audience at Wigtown Book Festival, Mr Little, who is from Dumfries and Galloway, said he believed if Reform saw a strong performance in the next UK general election, there could be a resurgence in interest in an independent Scotland - however he said the independence movement had currently "gone to sleep".

He said he did not take a public position on Scottish independence.

He said: “What I do think is the independence movement has gone to sleep for now and it’s not going to come back as long as there is a cost of living crisis, the war in Ukraine and the security crisis affecting all of us in the democratic world.”

He pointed to the 1979 vote on devolution, which saw a majority vote in favour, but failed to get a high enough proportion of the electorate to vote for the pro-devolution campaign to win.

He said: “I think one of the differences between 1979 and the [next referendum] in 1997 was that 1979 was not a time of optimism. It was a time of discontent, there was a widespread feeling that Britain had become ungovernable, there was an interminable decline. It wasn’t really a surprise to me that the pro-Scottish Assembly campaign couldn’t muster sufficient support to get it over that 40 per cent line.

“By 1997, it was a time of great optimism and the Scots voted for a strong legislative parliamnet by three to one. I have come to the conclusion that the weather on the devolution or independence question is often made in London, not in Scotland.”

He said if a Reform government is voted in at Westminster at the next General Election - which will be held in 2029 at the latest - the Scottish mood on independence could change.

He said: “Scottish people recalibrate their position on the union in response to the changes that happen in Westminster. That was certainly true throughout the 1980s and 1990s and I think if the weather changes substantially after the next General Election, especially if Nigel Farage becomes Prime Minister, that will cause a recalibration of Scotland’s [opinion] on the union.”